UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
Saturday, January 14, 2012·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil·10 fights
Model: 7/10(70%)
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Main Card
FeatherweightHIT
Jose Aldo won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aldo 52%48% Mendes
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +258(favors Aldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Mendes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Mendes)
MiddleweightMISS
Vitor Belfort won by Submission (R1)
Belfort 48%52% Johnson
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -4(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Johnson)
MiddleweightMISS
Rousimar Palhares won by Submission (R1)
Palhares 47%53% Massenzio
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +617(favors Palhares)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Palhares)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Massenzio)
WelterweightMISS
Carlo Prater won by DQ (R1)
Prater 28%72% Silva
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -271(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.0(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Silva)
LightweightHIT
Edson Barboza won by KO/TKO (R3)
Barboza 58%42% Etim
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEAN
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +141(favors Barboza)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Barboza)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Thiago Tavares won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tavares 57%43% Stout
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -167(favors Stout)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Stout)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Tavares)
HeavyweightHIT
Gabriel Gonzaga won by Submission (R1)
Gonzaga 73%27% Oliveira
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +160(favors Gonzaga)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Gonzaga)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Gonzaga)
FeatherweightHIT
Iuri Alcantara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Alcantara 73%27% Omigawa
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +283(favors Alcantara)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Omigawa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.6(favors Alcantara)
WelterweightHIT
Mike Pyle won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pyle 66%34% Funch
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +347(favors Pyle)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Pyle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Pyle)
Early Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Felipe Arantes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Arantes 72%28% Carvalho
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -128(favors Carvalho)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Arantes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Carvalho)