UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Jose Aldo (14-9) taking on Chad Mendes (9-5). Aldo will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Aldo at 1541, Mendes at 1519. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Aldo's all-rounder game against Mendes's striker approach. Aldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Mendes brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mendes throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Mendes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Aldo over Chad Mendes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aldo at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-10) taking on Anthony Johnson (13-6). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1785 — 345 points above Belfort's 1440. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Vitor Belfort. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Rousimar Palhares (8-4) taking on Mike Massenzio (2-5). Massenzio is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Palhares is rated at 1247 — 492 points above Massenzio's 755. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Palhares is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Massenzio looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Massenzio the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Palhares throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Massenzio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Palhares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Massenzio over Rousimar Palhares. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Massenzio at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlo Prater (1-2) taking on Erick Silva (7-8).

Silva is rated at 1061 — 271 points above Prater's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 6.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Prater has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erick Silva over Carlo Prater. We're leaning Silva here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-14) taking on Terry Etim (6-5).

Barboza is rated at 1310 — 328 points above Etim's 982. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Barboza's striker game against Etim's submission artist approach. Barboza brings a versatile approach, while Etim is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Barboza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Barboza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edson Barboza over Terry Etim. The model gives Barboza a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Tavares (10-7-1) taking on Sam Stout (9-11).

Tavares is rated at 1202 — 327 points above Stout's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Tavares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stout is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tavares the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Sam Stout. The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-10) taking on Ednaldo Oliveira (0-2).

Gonzaga is rated at 1072 — 260 points above Oliveira's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzaga throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga over Ednaldo Oliveira. We're leaning Gonzaga here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Iuri Alcantara (10-7) taking on Michihiro Omigawa (1-6). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Alcantara is rated at 1136 — 414 points above Omigawa's 722. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Alcantara's knockout artist game against Omigawa's wrestler approach. Alcantara is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Omigawa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Omigawa throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Omigawa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Iuri Alcantara over Michihiro Omigawa. We're leaning Alcantara here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pyle (10-9) taking on Ricardo Funch (0-4).

Pyle is rated at 967 — 233 points above Funch's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pyle throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pyle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Pyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Pyle over Ricardo Funch. We're leaning Pyle here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Felipe Arantes (5-6-1) taking on Antonio Carvalho (2-2). Arantes will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Carvalho at 1133 versus Arantes at 991. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arantes throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Carvalho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Carvalho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Felipe Arantes over Antonio Carvalho. We're leaning Arantes here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.