UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes lands on Saturday, January 14, 2012 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Aldo vs Chad MendesFeatherweight | Jose Aldo | Toss-up | 50% |
| Vitor Belfort vs Anthony JohnsonMiddleweight | Vitor Belfort | Toss-up | 55% |
| Rousimar Palhares vs Mike MassenzioMiddleweight | Rousimar Palhares | Confident | 65% |
| Carlo Prater vs Erick SilvaWelterweight | Erick Silva | Confident | 74% |
| Edson Barboza vs Terry EtimLightweight | Edson Barboza | Toss-up | 54% |
| Thiago Tavares vs Sam StoutLightweight | Sam Stout | Toss-up | 50% |
| Gabriel Gonzaga vs Ednaldo OliveiraHeavyweight | Gabriel Gonzaga | Confident | 67% |
| Iuri Alcantara vs Michihiro OmigawaFeatherweight | Iuri Alcantara | Confident | 70% |
| Mike Pyle vs Ricardo FunchWelterweight | Mike Pyle | Confident | 65% |
| Felipe Arantes vs Antonio CarvalhoFeatherweight | Felipe Arantes | Confident | 74% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Jose Aldo vs Chad Mendes
The Featherweight matchup features Jose Aldo (14-8) taking on Chad Mendes (9-4). Aldo will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
Aldo carries a modest Elo edge (1420 to 1377), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Aldo's all-rounder game against Mendes's striker approach. Aldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Mendes brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mendes throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Mendes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jose Aldo over Chad Mendes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aldo at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Vitor Belfort vs Anthony Johnson
The Middleweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-9) taking on Anthony Johnson (13-5). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Johnson is rated at 1708 — 453 points above Belfort's 1255. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson has won 3 straight.
The style clash matters here: Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Johnson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Belfort the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Vitor Belfort over Anthony Johnson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Belfort at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Rousimar Palhares vs Mike Massenzio
The Middleweight matchup features Rousimar Palhares (7-4) taking on Mike Massenzio (2-4). Massenzio is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Palhares is rated at 1251 — 444 points above Massenzio's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Palhares is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Massenzio looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Massenzio the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Palhares throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Massenzio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Palhares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rousimar Palhares over Mike Massenzio. We're leaning Palhares here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Carlo Prater vs Erick Silva
The Welterweight matchup features Carlo Prater (1-1) taking on Erick Silva (7-7).
There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 951 versus Prater at 869. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 6.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Prater has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Erick Silva over Carlo Prater. We're leaning Silva here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Edson Barboza vs Terry Etim
The Lightweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Terry Etim (6-4).
Barboza is rated at 1142 — 195 points above Etim's 947. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Barboza's striker game against Etim's submission artist approach. Barboza brings a versatile approach, while Etim is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Barboza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Barboza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Edson Barboza over Terry Etim. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barboza at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Thiago Tavares vs Sam Stout
The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Tavares (10-6-1) taking on Sam Stout (9-10).
Tavares is rated at 1124 — 368 points above Stout's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Tavares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stout is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tavares the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Sam Stout over Thiago Tavares. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stout at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Ednaldo Oliveira
The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9) taking on Ednaldo Oliveira (0-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Gonzaga at 967 versus Oliveira at 844. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzaga throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga over Ednaldo Oliveira. We're leaning Gonzaga here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Iuri Alcantara vs Michihiro Omigawa
The Featherweight matchup features Iuri Alcantara (10-6) taking on Michihiro Omigawa (1-5). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Alcantara is rated at 1046 — 293 points above Omigawa's 753. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Alcantara's knockout artist game against Omigawa's wrestler approach. Alcantara is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Omigawa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Omigawa throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Omigawa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Iuri Alcantara over Michihiro Omigawa. We're leaning Alcantara here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Mike Pyle vs Ricardo Funch
The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pyle (10-8) taking on Ricardo Funch (0-3).
Pyle carries a modest Elo edge (831 to 773), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pyle throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pyle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Pyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mike Pyle over Ricardo Funch. We're leaning Pyle here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Felipe Arantes vs Antonio Carvalho
The Featherweight matchup features Felipe Arantes (5-5-1) taking on Antonio Carvalho (2-1). Arantes will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Carvalho is rated at 1084 — 159 points above Arantes's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Arantes throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Carvalho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Carvalho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Felipe Arantes over Antonio Carvalho. We're leaning Arantes here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.