UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
Friday, December 30, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightMISS
Alistair Overeem won by KO/TKO (R1)
Overeem 46%54% Lesnar
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -426(favors Lesnar)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Lesnar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.6(favors Lesnar)
LightweightHIT
Nate Diaz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Diaz 57%43% Cerrone
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -242(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Cerrone)
WelterweightMISS
Johny Hendricks won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hendricks 42%58% Fitch
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -268(favors Fitch)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Hendricks)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Fitch)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Alexander Gustafsson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gustafsson 62%38% Matyushenko
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +92(favors Gustafsson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Matyushenko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Matyushenko)
FeatherweightMISS
Jimy Hettes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hettes 46%54% Phan
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +147(favors Hettes)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.7(favors Phan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +8.8(favors Hettes)
FeatherweightHIT
Ross Pearson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pearson 66%34% Assuncao
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +131(favors Pearson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Pearson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Assuncao)
LightweightHIT
Danny Castillo won by Decision - Split (R3)
Castillo 53%47% Njokuani
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +109(favors Castillo)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Njokuani)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Castillo)
WelterweightHIT
Dong Hyun Kim won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kim 74%26% Pierson
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +214(favors Kim)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.9(favors Pierson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Kim)
LightweightHIT
Jacob Volkmann won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Volkmann 56%44% Escudero
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +170(favors Volkmann)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Escudero)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Volkmann)
FeatherweightHIT
Diego Nunes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nunes 64%36% Gamburyan
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +209(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Gamburyan)