UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Alistair Overeem (12-7) taking on Brock Lesnar (4-3).

Overeem is rated at 1412 — 221 points above Lesnar's 1191. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Overeem's striker game against Lesnar's submission artist approach. Overeem brings a versatile approach, while Lesnar is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lesnar throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lesnar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Overeem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brock Lesnar over Alistair Overeem.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lesnar at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-13). Diaz will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Diaz is rated at 1557 — 503 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Diaz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Diaz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Diaz over Donald Cerrone.** The model gives Diaz a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Johny Hendricks (13-7) taking on Jon Fitch (14-2-1). Fitch is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Fitch is rated at 1398 — 329 points above Hendricks's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hendricks is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Fitch looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Fitch the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hendricks throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fitch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Fitch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Fitch over Johny Hendricks.** The model gives Fitch a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Gustafsson (10-7) taking on Vladimir Matyushenko (7-4). Gustafsson is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Gustafsson carries a modest Elo edge (1169 to 1126), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Gustafsson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Matyushenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Matyushenko the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matyushenko throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Matyushenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Matyushenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexander Gustafsson over Vladimir Matyushenko.** The model gives Gustafsson a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Jimy Hettes (3-2) taking on Nam Phan (2-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Hettes.

Hettes carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 859), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Hettes's wrestler game against Phan's striker approach. Hettes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Phan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phan throws significantly more leather — a 6.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hettes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.8 more per 15 minutes. Phan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nam Phan over Jimy Hettes.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Phan at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Ross Pearson (12-12) taking on Junior Assuncao (2-2). Assuncao will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Assuncao at 963 versus Pearson at 849. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Assuncao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ross Pearson over Junior Assuncao.** We're leaning Pearson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Danny Castillo (7-6) taking on Anthony Njokuani (3-4). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Castillo at 951, Njokuani at 972. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Njokuani throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Njokuani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Danny Castillo over Anthony Njokuani.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Castillo at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-3) taking on Sean Pierson (3-2).

Kim carries a modest Elo edge (1318 to 1239), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Kim looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pierson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kim the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pierson throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Pierson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over Sean Pierson.** We're leaning Kim here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jacob Volkmann (6-3) taking on Efrain Escudero (5-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Volkmann at 1028 versus Escudero at 941. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Volkmann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Escudero is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Volkmann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Escudero throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Escudero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jacob Volkmann over Efrain Escudero.** The model gives Volkmann a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Nunes (3-2) taking on Manvel Gamburyan (6-7).

Nunes carries a modest Elo edge (1047 to 972), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Nunes's striker game against Gamburyan's wrestler approach. Nunes brings a versatile approach, while Gamburyan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamburyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Diego Nunes over Manvel Gamburyan.** The model gives Nunes a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.