UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-5-1) taking on Pat Barry (5-6). Kongo is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Kongo is rated at 1183 — 273 points above Barry's 910. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Barry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Pat Barry.** We're leaning Kongo here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Charlie Brenneman (4-6) taking on Rick Story (12-6).

Story is rated at 1358 — 641 points above Brenneman's 717. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Brenneman's striker game against Story's wrestler approach. Brenneman brings a versatile approach, while Story looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Story throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Brenneman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rick Story over Charlie Brenneman.** We're leaning Story here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on John Howard (7-6). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1201 — 268 points above Howard's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Brown's knockout artist game against Howard's all-rounder approach. Brown is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Howard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Howard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Howard over Matt Brown.** The model gives Howard a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Matt Mitrione (9-4) taking on Christian Morecraft (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Morecraft.

Mitrione is rated at 1200 — 342 points above Morecraft's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitrione throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Morecraft is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Mitrione has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Mitrione over Christian Morecraft.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mitrione at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Tyson Griffin (8-5) taking on Manvel Gamburyan (6-7).

Gamburyan carries a modest Elo edge (972 to 925), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gamburyan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gamburyan the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamburyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tyson Griffin over Manvel Gamburyan.** We're leaning Griffin here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Javier Vazquez (0-0) taking on Joe Stevenson (8-7).

Vazquez is rated at 1082 — 176 points above Stevenson's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stevenson throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Stevenson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Vazquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Stevenson over Javier Vazquez.** We're leaning Stevenson here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (14-12) taking on Curt Warburton (1-1). Warburton is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Lauzon carries a modest Elo edge (1036 to 973), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Curt Warburton.** The model gives Lauzon a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Rich Attonito (3-1) taking on Daniel Roberts (3-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Attonito at 985, Roberts at 974. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Attonito throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Attonito has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Roberts over Rich Attonito.** We're leaning Roberts here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Charles Oliveira (23-11). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 687 points above Lentz's 1159. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Nik Lentz.** We're leaning Oliveira here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Lamas (10-6) taking on Matt Grice (2-4).

Lamas is rated at 1285 — 472 points above Grice's 813. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lamas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Grice looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Grice the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grice throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Grice is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Lamas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricardo Lamas over Matt Grice.** We're leaning Lamas here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (15-15) taking on Edward Faaloloto (0-1).

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 436 points above Faaloloto's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Faaloloto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Faaloloto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Johnson over Edward Faaloloto.** The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.