UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-7) taking on Shane Carwin (4-1). Carwin will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Carwin at 1317 versus Santos at 1191. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carwin throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Carwin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Shane Carwin.** The model is firm on this one: Santos at 78%.

The Featherweight matchup features Kenny Florian (12-4) taking on Diego Nunes (3-2). Florian is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Florian is rated at 1304 — 257 points above Nunes's 1047. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Florian's wrestler game against Nunes's striker approach. Florian looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nunes brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Florian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Florian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kenny Florian over Diego Nunes.** The model gives Florian a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Mark Munoz (8-6) taking on Demian Maia (22-10).

Maia is rated at 1371 — 289 points above Munoz's 1082. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Munoz's striker game against Maia's wrestler approach. Munoz brings a versatile approach, while Maia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Munoz over Demian Maia.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Munoz at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Dave Herman (1-3) taking on Jon Olav Einemo (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Herman at 849, Einemo at 863. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Einemo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Einemo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Einemo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dave Herman over Jon Olav Einemo.** The model gives Herman a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Vagner Rocha (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cerrone.

Cerrone is rated at 1054 — 186 points above Rocha's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Rocha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Vagner Rocha.** We're leaning Cerrone here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Sam Stout (9-10) taking on Yves Edwards (10-9). Edwards will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Edwards carries a modest Elo edge (818 to 756), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Stout is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Edwards the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sam Stout over Yves Edwards.** The model gives Stout a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Weidman (12-7) taking on Jesse Bongfeldt (0-0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Weidman at 1060 versus Bongfeldt at 928. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bongfeldt throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Weidman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Weidman over Jesse Bongfeldt.** We're leaning Weidman here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Krzysztof Soszynski (6-2) taking on Mike Massenzio (2-4). Soszynski will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Soszynski is rated at 975 — 168 points above Massenzio's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Soszynski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Massenzio looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Massenzio the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soszynski throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Massenzio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Soszynski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Krzysztof Soszynski over Mike Massenzio.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Soszynski at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Nick Ring (3-2) taking on James Head (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ring at 1015 versus Head at 922. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ring throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Head is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Head has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nick Ring over James Head.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ring at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Jason Young (1-2).

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 839 points above Young's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Young is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Young has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Jason Young.** We're leaning Poirier here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Joey Beltran (3-5) taking on Aaron Rosa (1-1). Rosa is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rosa at 902 versus Beltran at 815. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beltran throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Beltran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Rosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joey Beltran over Aaron Rosa.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Beltran at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Michihiro Omigawa (1-5). Elkins is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Elkins is rated at 1113 — 360 points above Omigawa's 753. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Omigawa throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 20.5 more per 15 minutes. Elkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Darren Elkins over Michihiro Omigawa.** We're leaning Elkins here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.