UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Mauricio Rua (11-11-1). Jones is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 1285 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jones is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Rua is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jones the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Jones over Mauricio Rua.** The model is firm on this one: Jones at 77%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Urijah Faber (11-6) taking on Eddie Wineland (6-9).

Faber is rated at 1297 — 431 points above Wineland's 865. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Faber's wrestler game against Wineland's striker approach. Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Wineland brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wineland throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wineland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wineland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eddie Wineland over Urijah Faber.** The model gives Wineland a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Kamal Shalorus (0-2). Miller will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Miller is rated at 1213 — 351 points above Shalorus's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Shalorus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jim Miller over Kamal Shalorus.** We're leaning Miller here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Marquardt (13-11) taking on Dan Miller (6-6).

Marquardt is rated at 1064 — 178 points above Miller's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Marquardt's knockout artist game against Miller's wrestler approach. Marquardt is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marquardt throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Marquardt over Dan Miller.** The model gives Marquardt a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brendan Schaub (6-4) taking on Mirko Filipovic (4-6). Schaub is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Schaub at 1154, Filipovic at 1145. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Schaub looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Filipovic is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Schaub the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schaub throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Filipovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Schaub has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brendan Schaub over Mirko Filipovic.** We're leaning Schaub here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Luiz Cane (4-4) taking on Eliot Marshall (3-2).

Cane carries a modest Elo edge (922 to 889), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Cane's striker game against Marshall's all-rounder approach. Cane brings a versatile approach, while Marshall is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cane throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Marshall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Marshall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eliot Marshall over Luiz Cane.** We're leaning Marshall here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Anthony Njokuani (3-4).

Barboza is rated at 1142 — 170 points above Njokuani's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Barboza's striker game against Njokuani's all-rounder approach. Barboza brings a versatile approach, while Njokuani is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barboza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Njokuani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Edson Barboza over Anthony Njokuani.** We're leaning Barboza here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pyle (10-8) taking on Ricardo Almeida (6-4).

Almeida is rated at 1189 — 358 points above Pyle's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Pyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricardo Almeida over Mike Pyle.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Almeida at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on Kurt Pellegrino (7-4).

Pellegrino is rated at 1215 — 197 points above Tibau's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pellegrino throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Tibau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Kurt Pellegrino.** The model gives Tibau a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Joseph Benavidez (15-5) taking on Ian Loveland (1-1).

Benavidez is rated at 1291 — 390 points above Loveland's 902. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loveland throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Loveland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Benavidez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ian Loveland over Joseph Benavidez.** We're leaning Loveland here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Catch Weight matchup features Nick Catone (3-4) taking on Constantinos Philippou (6-3).

Philippou is rated at 1179 — 175 points above Catone's 1004. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Catone's wrestler game against Philippou's striker approach. Catone looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Philippou brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Catone throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Catone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Philippou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Constantinos Philippou over Nick Catone.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Philippou at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Erik Koch (4-5) taking on Raphael Assuncao (12-6). Koch is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Assuncao at 1099 versus Koch at 1017. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Assuncao throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Assuncao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erik Koch over Raphael Assuncao.** The model gives Koch a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.