UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on Vitor Belfort (15-9). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Belfort at 1255 versus Silva at 1154. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anderson Silva over Vitor Belfort. The model is firm on this one: Silva at 75%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Forrest Griffin (9-5) taking on Rich Franklin (14-5).

Griffin is rated at 1329 — 236 points above Franklin's 1094. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Griffin looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Franklin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Griffin the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franklin throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Franklin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rich Franklin over Forrest Griffin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Franklin at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Ryan Bader (14-5). Jones is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 543 points above Bader's 1619. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jones looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bader is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Jones the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Jones over Ryan Bader. We're leaning Jones here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Ellenberger (10-10) taking on Carlos Eduardo Rocha (1-1).

Rocha is rated at 1000 — 153 points above Ellenberger's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ellenberger throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellenberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Rocha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Ellenberger over Carlos Eduardo Rocha. We're leaning Ellenberger here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Miguel Torres (2-1) taking on Antonio Banuelos (0-0). Torres is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 13-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Torres at 1009 versus Banuelos at 915. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Banuelos throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Banuelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Banuelos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miguel Torres over Antonio Banuelos. The model gives Torres a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Paul Kelly (5-3). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Cerrone carries a modest Elo edge (1054 to 998), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kelly looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kelly the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Cerrone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paul Kelly over Donald Cerrone. The model gives Kelly a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Chad Mendes (9-4) taking on Michihiro Omigawa (1-5).

Mendes is rated at 1377 — 624 points above Omigawa's 753. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Mendes's striker game against Omigawa's wrestler approach. Mendes brings a versatile approach, while Omigawa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Omigawa throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Omigawa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Mendes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chad Mendes over Michihiro Omigawa. We're leaning Mendes here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on Norifumi Yamamoto (0-3).

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 838 points above Yamamoto's 765. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yamamoto throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yamamoto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yamamoto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over Norifumi Yamamoto. The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Taylor (3-5) taking on Gabe Ruediger (0-2).

Taylor is rated at 1057 — 281 points above Ruediger's 775. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taylor throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruediger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Taylor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paul Taylor over Gabe Ruediger. We're leaning Taylor here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Kyle Kingsbury (4-4) taking on Ricardo Romero (1-1). Kingsbury is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kingsbury at 835, Romero at 838. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kingsbury throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kingsbury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Kingsbury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Kingsbury over Ricardo Romero. The model gives Kingsbury a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pierce (9-4) taking on Kenny Robertson (4-4). Robertson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Pierce carries a modest Elo edge (1171 to 1097), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Pierce is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Robertson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pierce throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pierce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Robertson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Pierce over Kenny Robertson. The model gives Pierce a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.