UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on BJ Penn (12-12-2). Penn is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Edgar is rated at 1185 — 247 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Edgar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Edgar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Frankie Edgar over BJ Penn.** The model gives Edgar a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Randy Couture (16-7) taking on James Toney (0-0).

Couture is rated at 1248 — 274 points above Toney's 973. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Couture rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Couture throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Couture is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Toney has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Randy Couture over James Toney.** The model is firm on this one: Couture at 80%.

The Middleweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Mario Miranda (1-2). Miranda is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Maia is rated at 1371 — 386 points above Miranda's 985. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miranda throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Miranda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Demian Maia over Mario Miranda.** We're leaning Maia here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Gray Maynard (11-6-1) taking on Kenny Florian (12-4). Florian will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Florian is rated at 1304 — 330 points above Maynard's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Florian throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Maynard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gray Maynard over Kenny Florian.** We're leaning Maynard here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Marcus Davis (9-5). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Diaz is rated at 1557 — 525 points above Davis's 1032. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Diaz over Marcus Davis.** The model is firm on this one: Diaz at 76%.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (14-12) taking on Gabe Ruediger (0-2).

Lauzon is rated at 1036 — 260 points above Ruediger's 775. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruediger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Gabe Ruediger.** We're leaning Lauzon here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Andre Winner (2-3). Winner is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Lentz is rated at 1159 — 248 points above Winner's 911. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lentz's all-rounder game against Winner's striker approach. Lentz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Winner brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Lentz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nik Lentz over Andre Winner.** The model gives Lentz a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Dan Miller (6-6) taking on John Salter (1-1).

Salter carries a modest Elo edge (916 to 886), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Salter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Salter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Miller over John Salter.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miller at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Greg Soto (1-1) taking on Nick Osipczak (2-2). Osipczak is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Soto carries a modest Elo edge (1013 to 971), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Osipczak throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Osipczak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Osipczak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nick Osipczak over Greg Soto.** We're leaning Osipczak here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pierce (9-4) taking on Amilcar Alves (0-1).

Pierce is rated at 1171 — 297 points above Alves's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pierce throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pierce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Pierce over Amilcar Alves.** The model is firm on this one: Pierce at 78%.