UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Quinton Jackson (7-5).

Jackson is rated at 1296 — 175 points above Evans's 1121. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rashad Evans over Quinton Jackson. The model gives Evans a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Dan Miller (6-6).

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 636 points above Miller's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bisping looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Miller is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Bisping the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Bisping over Dan Miller. We're leaning Bisping here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mike Russow (4-1) taking on Todd Duffee (3-2). Duffee is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Duffee at 1133 versus Russow at 1027. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Russow's wrestler game against Duffee's striker approach. Russow looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Duffee brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duffee throws significantly more leather — a 32.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Russow is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.0 more per 15 minutes. Duffee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Todd Duffee over Mike Russow. The model gives Duffee a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rogerio Nogueira (6-6) taking on Jason Brilz (3-3). Nogueira is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Nogueira is rated at 1142 — 198 points above Brilz's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nogueira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brilz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brilz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nogueira throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brilz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Nogueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rogerio Nogueira over Jason Brilz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nogueira at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features John Hathaway (7-1) taking on Diego Sanchez (19-12). Hathaway is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hathaway at 1241 versus Sanchez at 1139. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Hathaway rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Hathaway's all-rounder game against Sanchez's knockout artist approach. Hathaway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sanchez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hathaway throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hathaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Hathaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Hathaway over Diego Sanchez. The model is firm on this one: Hathaway at 77%.

The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-3) taking on Amir Sadollah (6-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Kim.

Kim is rated at 1318 — 372 points above Sadollah's 946. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sadollah throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Sadollah has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over Amir Sadollah. We're leaning Kim here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Efrain Escudero (5-6) taking on Dan Lauzon (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Escudero at 941 versus Lauzon at 828. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Escudero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Efrain Escudero over Dan Lauzon. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Escudero at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Melvin Guillard (12-8) taking on Waylon Lowe (2-1).

Guillard is rated at 1177 — 152 points above Lowe's 1025. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guillard throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Guillard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Lowe has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melvin Guillard over Waylon Lowe. The model is firm on this one: Guillard at 81%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Cyrille Diabate (4-3) taking on Luiz Cane (4-4). Diabate is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Cane carries a modest Elo edge (922 to 862), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Diabate is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cane brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Diabate the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cane throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Diabate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cyrille Diabate over Luiz Cane. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Diabate at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Aaron Riley (3-5) taking on Joe Brammer (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Riley at 858, Brammer at 847. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riley throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Riley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Brammer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aaron Riley over Joe Brammer. The model gives Riley a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ryan Jensen (2-5) taking on Jesse Forbes (0-2).

Jensen carries a modest Elo edge (759 to 725), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jensen throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Forbes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Jensen over Jesse Forbes. The model gives Jensen a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.