UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mauricio Rua (11-11-1) taking on Lyoto Machida (15-8).

Machida is rated at 1493 — 617 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rua brings a versatile approach, while Machida is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Machida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rua throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Rua has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mauricio Rua over Lyoto Machida.** The model gives Rua a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-9) taking on Paul Daley (2-0). Daley will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Daley is rated at 1292 — 352 points above Koscheck's 939. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Daley throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Daley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Daley over Josh Koscheck.** The model gives Daley a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-18) taking on Sam Stout (9-10).

Stephens is rated at 941 — 185 points above Stout's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Stephens is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Stout brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Stephens the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Stout has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Sam Stout.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stephens at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Matt Mitrione (9-4) taking on Kevin Ferguson (1-0). Mitrione will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mitrione is rated at 1200 — 252 points above Ferguson's 947. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitrione throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferguson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Mitrione has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Mitrione over Kevin Ferguson.** We're leaning Mitrione here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Alan Belcher (9-5) taking on Patrick Cote (10-10). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Belcher.

Belcher carries a modest Elo edge (1293 to 1221), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Belcher's knockout artist game against Cote's all-rounder approach. Belcher is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cote is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belcher throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Cote is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Belcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alan Belcher over Patrick Cote.** The model gives Belcher a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Joe Doerksen (2-6) taking on Tom Lawlor (6-4).

Lawlor is rated at 1205 — 280 points above Doerksen's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Doerksen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lawlor is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Doerksen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawlor throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawlor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Lawlor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tom Lawlor over Joe Doerksen.** The model is firm on this one: Lawlor at 79%.

The Welterweight matchup features Marcus Davis (9-5) taking on Jonathan Goulet (4-4). Goulet is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Davis carries a modest Elo edge (1032 to 997), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Goulet is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Davis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Goulet is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcus Davis over Jonathan Goulet.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Davis at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Johny Hendricks (13-7) taking on TJ Grant (7-3). Grant will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Grant is rated at 1640 — 571 points above Hendricks's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Grant has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Hendricks's striker game against Grant's all-rounder approach. Hendricks brings a versatile approach, while Grant is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hendricks throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: TJ Grant over Johny Hendricks.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grant at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Joey Beltran (3-5) taking on Tim Hague (1-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Hague.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Beltran at 815, Hague at 819. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beltran throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hague is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Beltran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joey Beltran over Tim Hague.** The model gives Beltran a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Guymon (1-2) taking on Yoshiyuki Yoshida (2-2). Guymon will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Yoshida at 943 versus Guymon at 823. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yoshida throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Yoshida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Guymon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yoshiyuki Yoshida over Mike Guymon.** The model gives Yoshida a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features John Salter (1-1) taking on Jason MacDonald (6-7). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Salter at 916 versus MacDonald at 831. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. MacDonald throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Salter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Salter over Jason MacDonald.** The model gives Salter a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.