UFC 112: Invincible: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on Demian Maia (22-10). Silva will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Maia is rated at 1371 — 217 points above Silva's 1154. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Silva's knockout artist game against Maia's wrestler approach. Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Maia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anderson Silva over Demian Maia.** We're leaning Silva here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight championship matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on BJ Penn (12-12-2). Penn is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Edgar is rated at 1185 — 247 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Edgar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Edgar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: BJ Penn over Frankie Edgar.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Penn at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on Renzo Gracie (0-0).

Hughes is rated at 1273 — 299 points above Gracie's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Gracie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Hughes over Renzo Gracie.** The model is firm on this one: Hughes at 82%.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Terry Etim (6-4). Etim is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 335 points above Etim's 947. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Etim throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Etim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Terry Etim.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Anjos at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Mark Munoz (8-6) taking on Kendall Grove (7-5). Grove is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Munoz at 1082 versus Grove at 994. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Munoz's wrestler game against Grove's knockout artist approach. Munoz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Grove is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Munoz over Kendall Grove.** We're leaning Munoz here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Phil Davis (9-2) taking on Alexander Gustafsson (10-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gustafsson.

Davis is rated at 1427 — 258 points above Gustafsson's 1169. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gustafsson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Davis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gustafsson throws significantly more leather — a 5.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Phil Davis over Alexander Gustafsson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Davis at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Rick Story (12-6) taking on Nick Osipczak (2-2). Osipczak is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Story is rated at 1358 — 387 points above Osipczak's 971. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Osipczak throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Story is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rick Story over Nick Osipczak.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Story at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features DaMarques Johnson (4-5) taking on Brad Blackburn (3-1). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Blackburn at 943 versus Johnson at 841. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blackburn throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Blackburn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Blackburn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: DaMarques Johnson over Brad Blackburn.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Kelly (5-3) taking on Matt Veach (1-1).

Kelly carries a modest Elo edge (998 to 960), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Veach is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Kelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Kelly over Matt Veach.** We're leaning Kelly here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jon Madsen (4-0) taking on Mostapha Al-Turk (0-2). Al-Turk is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Madsen is rated at 1098 — 300 points above Al-Turk's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Madsen rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Madsen throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Al-Turk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Madsen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Madsen over Mostapha Al-Turk.** The model is firm on this one: Madsen at 76%.