UFC 105: Couture vs Vera: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Randy Couture (16-7) taking on Brandon Vera (8-6). Vera is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Couture is rated at 1248 — 303 points above Vera's 945. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Couture rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Couture looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Vera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Couture the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Couture is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Couture has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brandon Vera over Randy Couture.** The model gives Vera a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Dan Hardy (5-4) taking on Mike Swick (10-4). Swick will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hardy is rated at 1262 — 218 points above Swick's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hardy's wrestler game against Swick's knockout artist approach. Hardy looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Swick is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Swick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Swick over Dan Hardy.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Swick at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Denis Kang (1-1).

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 549 points above Kang's 973. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Bisping over Denis Kang.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bisping at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on James Wilks (2-1).

Brown is rated at 1201 — 205 points above Wilks's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Wilks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Brown over James Wilks.** The model gives Brown a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Ross Pearson (12-12) taking on Aaron Riley (3-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pearson at 849, Riley at 858. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Pearson's striker game against Riley's all-rounder approach. Pearson brings a versatile approach, while Riley is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Riley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Riley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ross Pearson over Aaron Riley.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pearson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features John Hathaway (7-1) taking on Paul Taylor (3-5). Hathaway will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hathaway is rated at 1241 — 184 points above Taylor's 1057. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hathaway rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taylor throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hathaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.4 more per 15 minutes. Hathaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Hathaway over Paul Taylor.** We're leaning Hathaway here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Terry Etim (6-4) taking on Shannon Gugerty (2-2). Etim is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Etim at 947, Gugerty at 971. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Etim throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gugerty is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Etim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Terry Etim over Shannon Gugerty.** The model gives Etim a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Nick Osipczak (2-2) taking on Matthew Riddle (7-3).

Riddle is rated at 1158 — 187 points above Osipczak's 971. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Osipczak throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Osipczak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Osipczak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nick Osipczak over Matthew Riddle.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Osipczak at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Dennis Siver (11-8) taking on Paul Kelly (5-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Kelly.

Siver is rated at 1214 — 216 points above Kelly's 998. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Siver is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kelly looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kelly the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Kelly over Dennis Siver.** The model gives Kelly a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Gustafsson (10-7) taking on Jared Hamman (2-4). Gustafsson is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gustafsson is rated at 1169 — 435 points above Hamman's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gustafsson's all-rounder game against Hamman's striker approach. Gustafsson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hamman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamman throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hamman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexander Gustafsson over Jared Hamman.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gustafsson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Andre Winner (2-3) taking on Rolando Delgado (1-1). Delgado is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Winner carries a modest Elo edge (911 to 866), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Winner throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Delgado is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Delgado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rolando Delgado over Andre Winner.** The model gives Delgado a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.