UFC 103: Franklin vs Belfort: Predictions & Analysis

The Catch Weight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-9) taking on Rich Franklin (14-5).

Belfort is rated at 1255 — 161 points above Franklin's 1094. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Belfort's knockout artist game against Franklin's all-rounder approach. Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Franklin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franklin throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Belfort is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Franklin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rich Franklin over Vitor Belfort.** The model gives Franklin a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-7) taking on Mirko Filipovic (4-6). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Santos carries a modest Elo edge (1191 to 1145), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Santos brings a versatile approach, while Filipovic is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Filipovic the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Filipovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Filipovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Mirko Filipovic.** We're leaning Santos here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Paul Daley (2-0) taking on Martin Kampmann (11-5). Daley will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Kampmann carries a modest Elo edge (1358 to 1292), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kampmann throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kampmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Daley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Martin Kampmann over Paul Daley.** We're leaning Kampmann here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-9) taking on Frank Trigg (2-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Koscheck at 939, Trigg at 937. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Koscheck is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Trigg is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Trigg the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trigg throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Trigg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Frank Trigg.** We're leaning Koscheck here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Tyson Griffin (8-5) taking on Hermes Franca (6-4). Franca will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Franca is rated at 1107 — 182 points above Griffin's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Franca looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Franca the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tyson Griffin over Hermes Franca.** We're leaning Griffin here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Efrain Escudero (5-6) taking on Cole Miller (10-8). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Escudero carries a modest Elo edge (941 to 891), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Escudero is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miller is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Escudero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.3 more per 15 minutes. Escudero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Efrain Escudero over Cole Miller.** The model gives Escudero a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Tomasz Drwal (3-2) taking on Drew McFedries (4-4). Drwal will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Drwal at 1008, McFedries at 983. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Drwal is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while McFedries is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving McFedries the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. McFedries throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Drwal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Drwal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tomasz Drwal over Drew McFedries.** We're leaning Drwal here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Steve Lopez (0-1).

Miller is rated at 1213 — 341 points above Lopez's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Lopez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jim Miller over Steve Lopez.** The model is firm on this one: Miller at 82%.

The Lightweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Rafaello Oliveira (2-5). Oliveira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lentz is rated at 1159 — 341 points above Oliveira's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lentz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafaello Oliveira over Nik Lentz.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Rick Story (12-6) taking on Brian Foster (2-2).

Story is rated at 1358 — 173 points above Foster's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Story throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Story is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Foster has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rick Story over Brian Foster.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Story at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Eliot Marshall (3-2) taking on Jason Brilz (3-3). Marshall is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Brilz carries a modest Elo edge (944 to 889), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Marshall is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brilz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brilz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marshall throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Brilz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Marshall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eliot Marshall over Jason Brilz.** The model gives Marshall a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vladimir Matyushenko (7-4) taking on Igor Pokrajac (4-7).

Matyushenko is rated at 1126 — 362 points above Pokrajac's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Matyushenko's striker game against Pokrajac's all-rounder approach. Matyushenko brings a versatile approach, while Pokrajac is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matyushenko throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Matyushenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Pokrajac has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vladimir Matyushenko over Igor Pokrajac.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Matyushenko at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Rob Emerson (3-2).

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 358 points above Emerson's 924. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Anjos's wrestler game against Emerson's striker approach. Anjos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Emerson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emerson throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Emerson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rob Emerson over Rafael Dos Anjos.** The model gives Emerson a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.