UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard
Wednesday, September 16, 2009·Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
Model Record: 7/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✓
Nate Diaz won by Submission (R2)
Diaz 62%38% Guillard
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -22(favors Guillard)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Guillard)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Guillard)
Lightweight✓
Gray Maynard won by Decision - Split (R3)
Maynard 75%25% Huerta
STRONG
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +125(favors Maynard)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Huerta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Maynard)
Welterweight✓
Carlos Condit won by Decision - Split (R3)
Condit 60%40% Ellenberger
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -28(favors Ellenberger)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Condit)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Condit)
Middleweight✓
Nate Quarry won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Quarry 51%49% Credeur
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -41(favors Credeur)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Quarry)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Credeur)
Light Heavyweight✓
Brian Stann won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stann 61%39% Cantwell
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -138(favors Cantwell)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Cantwell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Cantwell)
Welterweight✗
Mike Pyle won by Submission (R3)
Pyle 41%59% Wilson
LEAN
→Elo gap: -67(favors Wilson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Wilson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Wilson)
Middleweight✓
CB Dollaway won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dollaway 72%28% Silva
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +53(favors Dollaway)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Dollaway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Dollaway)
Lightweight✓
Jeremy Stephens won by KO/TKO (R1)
Stephens 66%34% Buchholz
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +28(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Buchholz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Stephens)
Welterweight✗
Mike Pierce won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pierce 27%73% Larson
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -197(favors Larson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Larson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Larson)
Middleweight✗
Ryan Jensen won by Submission (R1)
Jensen 36%64% Steinbeiss
LEAN
→Elo gap: -197(favors Steinbeiss)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Jensen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Jensen)