UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Melvin Guillard (12-8). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Diaz is rated at 1557 — 380 points above Guillard's 1177. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Diaz's wrestler game against Guillard's striker approach. Diaz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Guillard brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guillard throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Guillard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Diaz over Melvin Guillard.** The model gives Diaz a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Gray Maynard (11-6-1) taking on Roger Huerta (6-1).

Huerta is rated at 1257 — 282 points above Maynard's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Huerta throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Maynard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gray Maynard over Roger Huerta.** The model is firm on this one: Maynard at 75%.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Condit (9-9) taking on Jake Ellenberger (10-10). Condit is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Condit is rated at 1165 — 319 points above Ellenberger's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Condit throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Condit is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Ellenberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carlos Condit over Jake Ellenberger.** The model gives Condit a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Quarry (7-2) taking on Tim Credeur (3-1). Credeur is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Quarry is rated at 1179 — 161 points above Credeur's 1018. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarry throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Credeur is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Quarry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Quarry over Tim Credeur.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Quarry at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Brian Stann (6-4) taking on Steve Cantwell (1-4).

Stann is rated at 1077 — 350 points above Cantwell's 726. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Stann's knockout artist game against Cantwell's wrestler approach. Stann is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cantwell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cantwell throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cantwell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Stann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brian Stann over Steve Cantwell.** The model gives Stann a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pyle (10-8) taking on Chris Wilson (1-2).

Wilson carries a modest Elo edge (863 to 831), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wilson throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Wilson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Pyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Wilson over Mike Pyle.** The model gives Wilson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features CB Dollaway (11-8) taking on Jay Silva (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dollaway at 965 versus Silva at 867. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dollaway throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: CB Dollaway over Jay Silva.** We're leaning Dollaway here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-18) taking on Justin Buchholz (1-3). Buchholz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Stephens at 941 versus Buchholz at 810. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buchholz throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Buchholz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Justin Buchholz.** We're leaning Stephens here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pierce (9-4) taking on Brock Larson (3-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Larson.

Pierce is rated at 1171 — 295 points above Larson's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pierce is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Larson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Larson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Larson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Larson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Pierce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brock Larson over Mike Pierce.** We're leaning Larson here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Ryan Jensen (2-5) taking on Steve Steinbeiss (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jensen at 759, Steinbeiss at 767. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jensen throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Steinbeiss has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Steve Steinbeiss over Ryan Jensen.** The model gives Steinbeiss a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.