UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Serghei Spivac (8-6) taking on Marcin Tybura (14-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Spivac at 1355 versus Tybura at 1242. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Spivac is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Tybura is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spivac the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tybura throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Spivac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.3 more per 15 minutes. Tybura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Serghei Spivac over Marcin Tybura.** The model gives Spivac a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Chepe Mariscal (5-0) taking on Damon Jackson (6-5-1). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Mariscal is rated at 1275 — 236 points above Jackson's 1039. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mariscal rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mariscal throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chepe Mariscal over Damon Jackson.** We're leaning Mariscal here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Danny Barlow (2-1) taking on Nikolay Veretennikov (1-3). Barlow will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Veretennikov is rated at 1054 — 159 points above Barlow's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barlow throws significantly more leather — a 8.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Veretennikov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Veretennikov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Danny Barlow over Nikolay Veretennikov.** We're leaning Barlow here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Gutierrez (10-3-1) taking on Quang Le (1-2). Le will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gutierrez is rated at 1298 — 423 points above Le's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gutierrez throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Le is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Le has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Gutierrez over Quang Le.** We're leaning Gutierrez here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Yana Santos (6-5) taking on Chelsea Chandler (2-2).

Santos is rated at 1304 — 391 points above Chandler's 913. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chandler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chelsea Chandler over Yana Santos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Chandler at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Toshiomi Kazama (1-2) taking on Charalampos Grigoriou (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kazama at 837 versus Grigoriou at 737. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kazama throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Grigoriou is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Grigoriou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charalampos Grigoriou over Toshiomi Kazama.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grigoriou at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Karol Rosa (7-4) taking on Pannie Kianzad (5-5).

Rosa is rated at 1201 — 258 points above Kianzad's 943. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Rosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Karol Rosa over Pannie Kianzad.** The model gives Rosa a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jhonata Diniz (3-1) taking on Karl Williams (3-0).

Williams carries a modest Elo edge (1106 to 1031), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Williams has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Williams has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Karl Williams over Jhonata Diniz.** The model gives Williams a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Youssef Zalal (7-3-1) taking on Jarno Errens (1-2).

Zalal is rated at 1532 — 660 points above Errens's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zalal rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Errens throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Zalal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Zalal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Youssef Zalal over Jarno Errens.** We're leaning Zalal here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Stephanie Luciano (1-1) taking on Talita Alencar (2-1). Luciano is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Alencar carries a modest Elo edge (1168 to 1105), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alencar throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Alencar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Luciano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stephanie Luciano over Talita Alencar.** The model gives Luciano a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.