UFC 101: Declaration: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features BJ Penn (12-13-2) taking on Kenny Florian (12-5). Florian will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Florian is rated at 1450 — 308 points above Penn's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Penn's knockout artist game against Florian's wrestler approach. Penn is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Florian looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Florian throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Florian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Florian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kenny Florian over BJ Penn. We're leaning Florian here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anderson Silva (17-7) taking on Forrest Griffin (10-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Griffin at 1448 versus Silva at 1361. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Silva's knockout artist game against Griffin's wrestler approach. Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Griffin looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anderson Silva over Forrest Griffin. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Aaron Riley (3-6) taking on Shane Nelson (2-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Riley at 871, Nelson at 898. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riley throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shane Nelson over Aaron Riley. We're leaning Nelson here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Johny Hendricks (13-8) taking on Amir Sadollah (6-5). Sadollah will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hendricks is rated at 1254 — 282 points above Sadollah's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hendricks's striker game against Sadollah's all-rounder approach. Hendricks brings a versatile approach, while Sadollah is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sadollah throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Sadollah is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hendricks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johny Hendricks over Amir Sadollah. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hendricks at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Ricardo Almeida (6-5) taking on Kendall Grove (7-6). Grove is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Almeida at 1222 versus Grove at 1085. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Almeida is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Grove looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Grove the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grove throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Almeida over Kendall Grove. We're leaning Almeida here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Kurt Pellegrino (7-5) taking on Josh Neer (6-9). Neer is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pellegrino is rated at 1306 — 351 points above Neer's 956. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neer throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pellegrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Pellegrino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kurt Pellegrino over Josh Neer. The model gives Pellegrino a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features John Howard (7-7) taking on Tamdan McCrory (4-5). McCrory is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Howard at 1023, McCrory at 1036. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Howard's striker game against McCrory's submission artist approach. Howard brings a versatile approach, while McCrory is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCrory throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. McCrory has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tamdan McCrory over John Howard. The model gives McCrory a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Alessio Sakara (6-8) taking on Thales Leites (13-8). Leites will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Leites is rated at 1289 — 273 points above Sakara's 1016. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sakara's striker game against Leites's wrestler approach. Sakara brings a versatile approach, while Leites looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sakara throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Sakara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thales Leites over Alessio Sakara. The model gives Leites a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Matthew Riddle (7-3) taking on Dan Cramer (1-1).

Riddle is rated at 1177 — 183 points above Cramer's 994. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riddle throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Riddle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Riddle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matthew Riddle over Dan Cramer. The model is firm on this one: Riddle at 82%.

The Lightweight matchup features George Sotiropoulos (7-4) taking on George Roop (5-8). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Roop.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sotiropoulos at 965, Roop at 961. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Sotiropoulos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Roop is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sotiropoulos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roop throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sotiropoulos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Sotiropoulos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: George Roop over George Sotiropoulos. The model gives Roop a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jesse Lennox (1-2) taking on Danillo Villefort (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lennox at 802, Villefort at 809. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villefort throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Villefort is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Villefort has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danillo Villefort over Jesse Lennox. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Villefort at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.