UFC 95: Sanchez vs Stevenson: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Joe Stevenson (8-7). Sanchez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 233 points above Stevenson's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's knockout artist game against Stevenson's wrestler approach. Sanchez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Stevenson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stevenson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Stevenson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Stevenson over Diego Sanchez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stevenson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Dan Hardy (5-4) taking on Rory Markham (1-1). Hardy will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hardy is rated at 1262 — 319 points above Markham's 943. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Markham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Hardy over Rory Markham. We're leaning Hardy here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Marquardt (13-11) taking on Wilson Gouveia (6-3).

Marquardt carries a modest Elo edge (1064 to 1030), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marquardt throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Marquardt over Wilson Gouveia. We're leaning Marquardt here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Chael Sonnen (7-6).

Sonnen carries a modest Elo edge (1430 to 1371), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maia throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sonnen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Sonnen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demian Maia over Chael Sonnen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Maia at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Paulo Thiago (5-7) taking on Josh Koscheck (15-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Koscheck at 939 versus Thiago at 811. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Koscheck throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Thiago has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Paulo Thiago. The model gives Koscheck a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Terry Etim (6-4) taking on Brian Cobb (0-0).

Etim carries a modest Elo edge (947 to 899), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Etim throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cobb is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cobb has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Terry Etim over Brian Cobb. The model is firm on this one: Etim at 78%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-7) taking on Stefan Struve (13-10). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Santos is rated at 1191 — 313 points above Struve's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Struve's all-rounder approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Struve is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Struve is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Struve has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Stefan Struve. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Evan Dunham (11-8-1) taking on Per Eklund (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dunham at 1019 versus Eklund at 874. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eklund throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Eklund is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Dunham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Per Eklund over Evan Dunham. The model gives Eklund a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mike Ciesnolevicz (1-0) taking on Neil Grove (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ciesnolevicz at 972 versus Grove at 890. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grove throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Grove is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Grove has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Ciesnolevicz over Neil Grove. The model gives Ciesnolevicz a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Paul Kelly (5-3) taking on Troy Mandaloniz (1-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kelly at 998, Mandaloniz at 1025. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mandaloniz throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Mandaloniz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paul Kelly over Troy Mandaloniz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kelly at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.