UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens
Saturday, February 7, 2009·Tampa, Florida, USA
Model Record: 7/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightMISS
Joe Lauzon won by Submission (R2)
Lauzon 47%53% Stephens
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +55(favors Lauzon)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Stephens)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Lauzon)
HeavyweightHIT
Cain Velasquez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Velasquez 86%14% Stojnic
STRONG
→Elo gap: +265(favors Velasquez)
→Striking volume advantage: +14.3(favors Velasquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.6(favors Velasquez)
LightweightHIT
Josh Neer won by Submission (R2)
Neer 57%43% Danzig
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -57(favors Danzig)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Danzig)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Neer)
WelterweightHIT
Anthony Johnson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Johnson 65%35% Fioravanti
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +91(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Fioravanti)
LightweightMISS
Kurt Pellegrino won by Submission (R2)
Pellegrino 49%51% Emerson
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -31(favors Emerson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Emerson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Pellegrino)
MiddleweightHIT
Dan Miller won by Submission (R1)
Miller 76%24% Rosholt
STRONG
→Elo gap: +187(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.5(favors Miller)
LightweightMISS
Matt Veach won by KO/TKO (R1)
Veach 37%63% Grice
LEAN
→Elo gap: +37(favors Veach)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Grice)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Grice)
LightweightHIT
Gleison Tibau won by Submission (R1)
Tibau 63%37% Clementi
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -141(favors Clementi)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Clementi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Tibau)
MiddleweightHIT
Nick Catone won by Submission (R2)
Catone 52%48% Downey
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Downey)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Downey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Downey)
WelterweightHIT
Matthew Riddle won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Riddle 75%25% Bruno
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +69(favors Riddle)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Riddle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Riddle)