UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (14-12) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lauzon at 1036 versus Stephens at 941. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Lauzon is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Stephens is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Stephens the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Joe Lauzon. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stephens at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-2) taking on Denis Stojnic (0-1).

Velasquez is rated at 1589 — 748 points above Stojnic's 841. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 14.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Stojnic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Denis Stojnic. The model is firm on this one: Velasquez at 86%.

The Lightweight matchup features Josh Neer (6-8) taking on Mac Danzig (5-7). Neer is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Danzig carries a modest Elo edge (920 to 872), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Neer looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Danzig is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Neer the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danzig throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Neer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Danzig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Neer over Mac Danzig. The model gives Neer a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-5) taking on Luigi Fioravanti (4-4). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1708 — 721 points above Fioravanti's 987. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Johnson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Fioravanti looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Fioravanti the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fioravanti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Fioravanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Luigi Fioravanti. We're leaning Johnson here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Kurt Pellegrino (7-4) taking on Rob Emerson (3-2).

Pellegrino is rated at 1215 — 292 points above Emerson's 924. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pellegrino's wrestler game against Emerson's striker approach. Pellegrino looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Emerson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emerson throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pellegrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Emerson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rob Emerson over Kurt Pellegrino. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Emerson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Dan Miller (6-6) taking on Jake Rosholt (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rosholt at 989 versus Miller at 886. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Rosholt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Miller over Jake Rosholt. The model is firm on this one: Miller at 76%.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Veach (1-1) taking on Matt Grice (2-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Veach at 960 versus Grice at 813. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grice throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Grice is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Veach has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Grice over Matt Veach. The model gives Grice a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on Rich Clementi (5-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Tibau at 1019, Clementi at 1034. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clementi throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Clementi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Rich Clementi. The model gives Tibau a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Nick Catone (3-4) taking on Derek Downey (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Catone at 1004 versus Downey at 890. That 115-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Downey throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Downey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Downey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nick Catone over Derek Downey. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Catone at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Matthew Riddle (7-3) taking on Steve Bruno (1-1).

Riddle is rated at 1158 — 211 points above Bruno's 948. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riddle throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Riddle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Riddle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matthew Riddle over Steve Bruno. We're leaning Riddle here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.