UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Saturday, August 3, 2024·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Model Record: 5/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Bantamweight✓
Umar Nurmagomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Nurmagomedov 55%45% Sandhagen
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -356(favors Sandhagen)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Nurmagomedov)
Middleweight✗
Shara Magomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magomedov 47%53% Oleksiejczuk
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +84(favors Magomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Magomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Oleksiejczuk)
Bantamweight✗
Deiveson Figueiredo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Figueiredo 50%50% Vera
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +5(favors Figueiredo)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Figueiredo)
Welterweight✓
Michael Chiesa won by Submission (R1)
Chiesa 72%28% Ferguson
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +231(favors Chiesa)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Chiesa)
Women's Strawweight✗
Mackenzie Dern won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dern 43%57% Godinez
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -101(favors Godinez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Godinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Godinez)
Lightweight✗
Joel Alvarez won by KO/TKO (R3)
Alvarez 38%62% Brener
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +145(favors Alvarez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Alvarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Brener)
Light Heavyweight✓
Azamat Murzakanov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Murzakanov 61%39% Menifield
LEAN
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +125(favors Murzakanov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Murzakanov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Murzakanov)
Lightweight✓
Kaue Fernandes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Fernandes 63%37% Yahya
LEAN
→Elo gap: +18(favors Fernandes)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Yahya)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Yahya)
Heavyweight✗
Shamil Gaziev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gaziev 39%61% Mayes
LEAN
→Elo gap: -21(favors Mayes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Mayes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Gaziev)
Lightweight✗
Guram Kutateladze won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kutateladze 39%61% Vucenic
LEAN
→Elo gap: -68(favors Vucenic)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors Kutateladze)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Kutateladze)
Women's Strawweight✗
Sam Hughes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hughes 46%54% Dudakova
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -114(favors Dudakova)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Dudakova)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Hughes)
Lightweight✗
Jai Herbert won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Herbert 36%64% Bedoya
LEAN
→Elo gap: +101(favors Herbert)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.5(favors Bedoya)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Herbert)
Middleweight✓
Sedriques Dumas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dumas 75%25% Tiuliulin
STRONG
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +134(favors Dumas)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Tiuliulin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Dumas)