UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Umar Nurmagomedov (7-1) taking on Cory Sandhagen (11-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Sandhagen.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Nurmagomedov at 1701, Sandhagen at 1707. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sandhagen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nurmagomedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov over Cory Sandhagen.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nurmagomedov at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Shara Magomedov (4-1) taking on Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Magomedov at 1254, Oleksiejczuk at 1268. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedov throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleksiejczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk over Shara Magomedov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oleksiejczuk at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on Marlon Vera (15-9). Vera is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Figueiredo at 1490, Vera at 1460. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Figueiredo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marlon Vera over Deiveson Figueiredo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vera at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (13-7) taking on Tony Ferguson (15-8).

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 425 points above Ferguson's 1065. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Chiesa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ferguson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Chiesa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Chiesa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Tony Ferguson.** We're leaning Chiesa here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mackenzie Dern (10-5) taking on Loopy Godinez (8-5). Dern is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Dern is rated at 1472 — 211 points above Godinez's 1260. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dern's wrestler game against Godinez's knockout artist approach. Dern looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Godinez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Godinez throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Godinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Godinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Loopy Godinez over Mackenzie Dern.** The model gives Godinez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Joel Alvarez (7-2) taking on Elves Brener (3-2). Alvarez is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Alvarez is rated at 1564 — 531 points above Brener's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Alvarez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Alvarez's submission artist game against Brener's striker approach. Alvarez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Brener brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvarez throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Brener is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Brener has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Elves Brener over Joel Alvarez.** The model gives Brener a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Azamat Murzakanov (5-0) taking on Alonzo Menifield (10-5-1). Menifield is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Murzakanov is rated at 1573 — 366 points above Menifield's 1207. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murzakanov rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Murzakanov brings a versatile approach, while Menifield is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Menifield the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murzakanov throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Murzakanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Murzakanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Azamat Murzakanov over Alonzo Menifield.** The model gives Murzakanov a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Kaue Fernandes (2-1) taking on Mohammad Yahya (0-2).

Fernandes is rated at 1212 — 520 points above Yahya's 692. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yahya throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Yahya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fernandes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kaue Fernandes over Mohammad Yahya.** The model gives Fernandes a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shamil Gaziev (3-1) taking on Don'Tale Mayes (4-6). Mayes is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Gaziev is rated at 1209 — 360 points above Mayes's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mayes throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gaziev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Mayes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Don'Tale Mayes over Shamil Gaziev.** The model gives Mayes a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Guram Kutateladze (2-2) taking on Jordan Vucenic (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kutateladze at 952 versus Vucenic at 860. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kutateladze throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kutateladze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Vucenic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jordan Vucenic over Guram Kutateladze.** The model gives Vucenic a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Sam Hughes (5-5) taking on Viktoriia Dudakova (2-1). Dudakova will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hughes is rated at 1232 — 385 points above Dudakova's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dudakova throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Viktoriia Dudakova over Sam Hughes.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dudakova at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jai Herbert (3-4-1) taking on Rolando Bedoya (0-3). Herbert is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Herbert is rated at 1014 — 250 points above Bedoya's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bedoya throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Herbert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Bedoya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rolando Bedoya over Jai Herbert.** The model gives Bedoya a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Sedriques Dumas (3-3) taking on Denis Tiuliulin (1-4).

Dumas carries a modest Elo edge (817 to 756), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tiuliulin throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dumas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Dumas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sedriques Dumas over Denis Tiuliulin.** The model is firm on this one: Dumas at 75%.