UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on BJ Penn (12-12-2). St-Pierre is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 1084 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: St-Pierre is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Penn is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Penn the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over BJ Penn.** The model is firm on this one: St-Pierre at 77%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on Thiago Silva (6-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Machida at 1493 versus Silva at 1362. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Silva over Lyoto Machida.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Stephan Bonnar (8-6). Jones will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 883 points above Bonnar's 1278. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one, while Bonnar has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Jones is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bonnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bonnar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Jones over Stephan Bonnar.** The model is firm on this one: Jones at 77%.

The Welterweight matchup features Karo Parisyan (8-3) taking on Dong Hyun Kim (13-3). Kim is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Kim is rated at 1318 — 281 points above Parisyan's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kim has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Parisyan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kim is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Parisyan the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Parisyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over Karo Parisyan.** The model gives Kim a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Nate Diaz (15-11). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Diaz is rated at 1557 — 632 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Diaz is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Guida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Clay Guida over Nate Diaz.** The model gives Guida a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jon Fitch (14-2-1) taking on Akihiro Gono (1-1). Fitch is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Fitch is rated at 1398 — 364 points above Gono's 1034. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gono throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gono is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Gono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Fitch over Akihiro Gono.** We're leaning Fitch here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Tavares (10-6-1) taking on Manvel Gamburyan (6-7). Tavares is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Tavares is rated at 1124 — 152 points above Gamburyan's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gamburyan throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamburyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Manvel Gamburyan.** The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features John Howard (7-6) taking on Chris Wilson (1-2). Wilson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Howard carries a modest Elo edge (932 to 863), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wilson throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Wilson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Howard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Howard over Chris Wilson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Howard at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jake O'Brien (4-2) taking on Christian Wellisch (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: O'Brien at 1002 versus Wellisch at 891. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wellisch throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Brien is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. O'Brien has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake O'Brien over Christian Wellisch.** The model is firm on this one: O'Brien at 80%.

The Welterweight matchup features Dan Cramer (1-0) taking on Matt Arroyo (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Cramer at 995 versus Arroyo at 887. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arroyo throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Arroyo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Cramer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Arroyo over Dan Cramer.** We're leaning Arroyo here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.