UFC 93: Franklin vs Henderson: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dan Henderson (9-8) taking on Rich Franklin (14-5). Franklin is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Henderson is rated at 1404 — 310 points above Franklin's 1094. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Henderson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Franklin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Henderson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franklin throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Franklin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rich Franklin over Dan Henderson.** We're leaning Franklin here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mauricio Rua (11-11-1) taking on Mark Coleman (7-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Coleman at 995 versus Rua at 876. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Rua's striker game against Coleman's submission artist approach. Rua brings a versatile approach, while Coleman is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Coleman throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Rua has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mauricio Rua over Mark Coleman.** We're leaning Rua here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Rousimar Palhares (7-4) taking on Jeremy Horn (6-6). Horn is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Palhares is rated at 1251 — 315 points above Horn's 936. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Palhares is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Horn looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Horn the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horn throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Palhares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Horn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rousimar Palhares over Jeremy Horn.** The model gives Palhares a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Alan Belcher (9-5) taking on Denis Kang (1-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Belcher.

Belcher is rated at 1293 — 320 points above Kang's 973. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belcher throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Belcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Kang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alan Belcher over Denis Kang.** We're leaning Belcher here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Marcus Davis (9-5) taking on Chris Lytle (9-10).

Lytle is rated at 1330 — 298 points above Davis's 1032. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lytle throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcus Davis over Chris Lytle.** We're leaning Davis here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features John Hathaway (7-1) taking on Tom Egan (0-0).

Hathaway is rated at 1241 — 368 points above Egan's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hathaway rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Egan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Egan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Egan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Hathaway over Tom Egan.** The model gives Hathaway a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Martin Kampmann (11-5) taking on Alexandre Barros (0-0).

Kampmann is rated at 1358 — 431 points above Barros's 927. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kampmann throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kampmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Barros has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Martin Kampmann over Alexandre Barros.** The model is firm on this one: Kampmann at 87%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Eric Schafer (3-5) taking on Antonio Mendes (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Schafer at 877, Mendes at 871. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schafer throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Schafer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eric Schafer over Antonio Mendes.** The model gives Schafer a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tomasz Drwal (3-2) taking on Ivan Serati (0-0).

Drwal is rated at 1008 — 163 points above Serati's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Drwal throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Drwal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Serati has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tomasz Drwal over Ivan Serati.** The model gives Drwal a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Dennis Siver (11-8) taking on Nate Mohr (1-2). Mohr is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Siver is rated at 1214 — 485 points above Mohr's 729. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mohr throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Siver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Mohr has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Mohr over Dennis Siver.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mohr at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.