UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Brock Lesnar (4-3) taking on Randy Couture (16-7). Lesnar is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Couture carries a modest Elo edge (1248 to 1191), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Couture has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lesnar throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lesnar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Couture has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brock Lesnar over Randy Couture.** We're leaning Lesnar here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Kenny Florian (12-4) taking on Joe Stevenson (8-7). Florian is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Florian is rated at 1304 — 398 points above Stevenson's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Florian looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stevenson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Florian the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Florian throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Florian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Florian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kenny Florian over Joe Stevenson.** We're leaning Florian here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Dustin Hazelett (5-4) taking on Tamdan McCrory (4-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring McCrory.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hazelett at 973, McCrory at 976. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Hazelett is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while McCrory looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving McCrory the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hazelett throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. McCrory is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Hazelett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Hazelett over Tamdan McCrory.** The model gives Hazelett a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9) taking on Josh Hendricks (0-0).

Gonzaga carries a modest Elo edge (967 to 936), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzaga throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Hendricks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga over Josh Hendricks.** The model is firm on this one: Gonzaga at 77%.

The Middleweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Nate Quarry (7-2).

Maia is rated at 1371 — 193 points above Quarry's 1179. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Maia's wrestler game against Quarry's striker approach. Maia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Quarry brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarry throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Quarry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Quarry over Demian Maia.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Quarry at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Aaron Riley (3-5) taking on Jorge Gurgel (3-3).

Riley carries a modest Elo edge (858 to 811), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Riley's striker game against Gurgel's wrestler approach. Riley brings a versatile approach, while Gurgel looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gurgel throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Riley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gurgel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jorge Gurgel over Aaron Riley.** The model gives Gurgel a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-18) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14).

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 341 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Stephens's striker game against Anjos's wrestler approach. Stephens brings a versatile approach, while Anjos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Rafael Dos Anjos.** We're leaning Stephens here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Mark Bocek (7-5) taking on Alvin Robinson (1-2). Bocek will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bocek is rated at 1230 — 375 points above Robinson's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robinson throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bocek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Bocek has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Bocek over Alvin Robinson.** The model gives Bocek a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on Ryan Thomas (0-1).

Brown is rated at 1201 — 345 points above Thomas's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Brown over Ryan Thomas.** We're leaning Brown here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.