UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Neer
Wednesday, September 17, 2008·Omaha, Nebraska, USA
Model Record: 9/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✓
Nate Diaz won by Decision - Split (R3)
Diaz 56%44% Neer
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +289(favors Diaz)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Neer)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Diaz)
Lightweight✓
Clay Guida won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Guida 57%43% Danzig
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -64(favors Danzig)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Danzig)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Guida)
Middleweight✓
Alan Belcher won by Decision - Split (R3)
Belcher 53%47% Herman
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +2(favors Belcher)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Belcher)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Herman)
Light Heavyweight✓
Eric Schafer won by Submission (R1)
Schafer 62%38% Alexander
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -3(favors Alexander)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.3(favors Alexander)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Schafer)
Middleweight✓
Alessio Sakara won by KO/TKO (R1)
Sakara 69%31% Vedepo
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -12(favors Vedepo)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.2(favors Sakara)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Sakara)
Middleweight✓
Wilson Gouveia won by Submission (R2)
Gouveia 67%33% Jensen
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +291(favors Gouveia)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Gouveia)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Gouveia)
Lightweight✓
Joe Lauzon won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lauzon 76%24% Bradley
STRONG
→Elo gap: +361(favors Lauzon)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors Lauzon)
Light Heavyweight✓
Jason Brilz won by KO/TKO (R2)
Brilz 55%45% Morris
LEAN
→Elo gap: +128(favors Brilz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Morris)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Morris)
Middleweight✗
Mike Massenzio won by Submission (R1)
Massenzio 40%60% McFedries
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -92(favors McFedries)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.8(favors McFedries)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors McFedries)
Middleweight✓
Dan Miller won by Submission (R1)
Miller 52%48% Kimmons
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -71(favors Kimmons)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Kimmons)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.8(favors Kimmons)