UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Neer: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Josh Neer (6-8). Diaz will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Diaz is rated at 1557 — 685 points above Neer's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Diaz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Neer looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Neer the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neer throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Neer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Diaz over Josh Neer.** The model gives Diaz a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Mac Danzig (5-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Guida at 926, Danzig at 920. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Danzig is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Guida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danzig throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Danzig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Clay Guida over Mac Danzig.** The model gives Guida a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Alan Belcher (9-5) taking on Ed Herman (13-11).

Belcher is rated at 1293 — 248 points above Herman's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belcher throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Belcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alan Belcher over Ed Herman.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Belcher at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Eric Schafer (3-5) taking on Houston Alexander (2-3). Schafer is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Schafer at 877 versus Alexander at 779. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Schafer's wrestler game against Alexander's knockout artist approach. Schafer looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alexander is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alexander throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Schafer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Schafer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eric Schafer over Houston Alexander.** The model gives Schafer a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Alessio Sakara (6-7) taking on Joe Vedepo (0-1).

Sakara is rated at 931 — 151 points above Vedepo's 780. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sakara throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sakara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Vedepo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alessio Sakara over Joe Vedepo.** We're leaning Sakara here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Wilson Gouveia (6-3) taking on Ryan Jensen (2-5).

Gouveia is rated at 1030 — 271 points above Jensen's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gouveia is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Jensen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Jensen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gouveia throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gouveia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Gouveia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wilson Gouveia over Ryan Jensen.** We're leaning Gouveia here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (14-12) taking on Kyle Bradley (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lauzon at 1036 versus Bradley at 903. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Kyle Bradley.** The model is firm on this one: Lauzon at 76%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jason Brilz (3-3) taking on Brad Morris (0-1).

Brilz is rated at 944 — 155 points above Morris's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morris throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Morris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Brilz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason Brilz over Brad Morris.** The model gives Brilz a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Mike Massenzio (2-4) taking on Drew McFedries (4-4).

McFedries is rated at 983 — 176 points above Massenzio's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Massenzio's wrestler game against McFedries's knockout artist approach. Massenzio looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while McFedries is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McFedries throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. McFedries is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Massenzio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Drew McFedries over Mike Massenzio.** The model gives McFedries a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Dan Miller (6-6) taking on Rob Kimmons (3-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Miller.

There's a real Elo separation here: Miller at 886 versus Kimmons at 798. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kimmons throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kimmons is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Miller over Rob Kimmons.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miller at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.