UFC 87: Seek And Destroy: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 87: Seek And Destroy lands on Saturday, August 9, 2008 in Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA with 10 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georges St-Pierre vs Jon FitchWelterweight | Georges St-Pierre | Confident | 73% |
| Brock Lesnar vs Heath HerringHeavyweight | Brock Lesnar | Strong | 77% |
| Rob Emerson vs Manvel GamburyanLightweight | Rob Emerson | Lean | 60% |
| Kenny Florian vs Roger HuertaLightweight | Kenny Florian | Toss-up | 55% |
| Demian Maia vs Jason MacDonaldMiddleweight | Jason MacDonald | Toss-up | 50% |
| Tamdan McCrory vs Luke CummoWelterweight | Tamdan McCrory | Confident | 70% |
| Cheick Kongo vs Dan EvensenHeavyweight | Cheick Kongo | Strong | 82% |
| Jon Jones vs Andre GusmaoLight Heavyweight | Jon Jones | Lean | 64% |
| Chris Wilson vs Steve BrunoWelterweight | Chris Wilson | Lean | 57% |
| Ben Saunders vs Ryan ThomasWelterweight | Ben Saunders | Lean | 60% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Georges St-Pierre vs Jon Fitch
The Welterweight championship matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Jon Fitch (14-2-1).
St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 624 points above Fitch's 1398. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.
The style clash matters here: St-Pierre is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Fitch looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Fitch the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. St-Pierre throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Fitch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Jon Fitch. We're leaning St-Pierre here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Brock Lesnar vs Heath Herring
The Heavyweight matchup features Brock Lesnar (4-3) taking on Heath Herring (2-2). Lesnar will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Lesnar is rated at 1191 — 260 points above Herring's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lesnar throws significantly more leather — a 8.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lesnar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.8 more per 15 minutes. Herring has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Brock Lesnar over Heath Herring. The model is firm on this one: Lesnar at 77%.
Rob Emerson vs Manvel Gamburyan
The Lightweight matchup features Rob Emerson (3-2) taking on Manvel Gamburyan (6-7). Emerson is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Gamburyan carries a modest Elo edge (972 to 924), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Emerson's striker game against Gamburyan's wrestler approach. Emerson brings a versatile approach, while Gamburyan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Emerson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamburyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Emerson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rob Emerson over Manvel Gamburyan. The model gives Emerson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Kenny Florian vs Roger Huerta
The Lightweight matchup features Kenny Florian (12-4) taking on Roger Huerta (6-1). Florian will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
Florian carries a modest Elo edge (1304 to 1257), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Huerta throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Huerta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Huerta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kenny Florian over Roger Huerta. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Florian at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Demian Maia vs Jason MacDonald
The Middleweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Jason MacDonald (6-7). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.
Maia is rated at 1371 — 540 points above MacDonald's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. MacDonald throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jason MacDonald over Demian Maia. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward MacDonald at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Tamdan McCrory vs Luke Cummo
The Welterweight matchup features Tamdan McCrory (4-4) taking on Luke Cummo (3-3). McCrory is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: McCrory at 976 versus Cummo at 896. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is McCrory's wrestler game against Cummo's knockout artist approach. McCrory looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cummo is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. McCrory throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. McCrory is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Cummo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tamdan McCrory over Luke Cummo. We're leaning McCrory here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Cheick Kongo vs Dan Evensen
The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-5-1) taking on Dan Evensen (0-1).
Kongo is rated at 1183 — 371 points above Evensen's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Evensen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Dan Evensen. The model is firm on this one: Kongo at 82%.
Jon Jones vs Andre Gusmao
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Andre Gusmao (0-1).
Jones is rated at 2161 — 1290 points above Gusmao's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gusmao throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gusmao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gusmao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jon Jones over Andre Gusmao. The model gives Jones a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Chris Wilson vs Steve Bruno
The Welterweight matchup features Chris Wilson (1-2) taking on Steve Bruno (1-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Bruno at 948 versus Wilson at 863. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Wilson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bruno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bruno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chris Wilson over Steve Bruno. The model gives Wilson a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Ben Saunders vs Ryan Thomas
The Welterweight matchup features Ben Saunders (9-9) taking on Ryan Thomas (0-1).
Thomas carries a modest Elo edge (856 to 812), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Saunders throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Thomas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Thomas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ben Saunders over Ryan Thomas. The model gives Saunders a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.