UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Matt Serra (7-6). St-Pierre is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 821 points above Serra's 1201. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: St-Pierre is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Serra looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Serra the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. St-Pierre throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Serra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Matt Serra.** We're leaning St-Pierre here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Rich Franklin (14-5) taking on Travis Lutter (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Franklin at 1094 versus Lutter at 966. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franklin throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Franklin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Franklin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rich Franklin over Travis Lutter.** The model is firm on this one: Franklin at 80%.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Quarry (7-2) taking on Kalib Starnes (2-2). Starnes is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Quarry is rated at 1179 — 243 points above Starnes's 936. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarry throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Starnes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Quarry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kalib Starnes over Nate Quarry.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Starnes at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Charles McCarthy (1-1). Bisping is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 562 points above McCarthy's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McCarthy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Bisping over Charles McCarthy.** The model gives Bisping a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Mac Danzig (5-7) taking on Mark Bocek (7-5). Bocek will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bocek is rated at 1230 — 311 points above Danzig's 920. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Danzig is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bocek looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bocek the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danzig throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Danzig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Bocek has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mac Danzig over Mark Bocek.** The model gives Danzig a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jason MacDonald (6-7) taking on Joe Doerksen (2-6). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Doerksen at 925 versus MacDonald at 831. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. MacDonald throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Doerksen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. MacDonald has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason MacDonald over Joe Doerksen.** We're leaning MacDonald here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Jason Day (1-1) taking on Alan Belcher (9-5). Belcher is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Belcher is rated at 1293 — 360 points above Day's 933. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belcher throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Belcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Day has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alan Belcher over Jason Day.** We're leaning Belcher here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Ed Herman (13-11). Herman will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Maia is rated at 1371 — 326 points above Herman's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.6 more per 15 minutes. Herman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ed Herman over Demian Maia.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Herman at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Rich Clementi (5-4) taking on Sam Stout (9-10).

Clementi is rated at 1034 — 278 points above Stout's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Clementi looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stout is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Clementi the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Clementi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Clementi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rich Clementi over Sam Stout.** The model gives Clementi a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-2) taking on Brad Morris (0-1).

Velasquez is rated at 1589 — 799 points above Morris's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morris throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Morris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Morris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Brad Morris.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Velasquez at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Jonathan Goulet (4-4) taking on Kuniyoshi Hironaka (1-2). Goulet is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Goulet at 997 versus Hironaka at 878. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Goulet throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Goulet is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Hironaka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jonathan Goulet over Kuniyoshi Hironaka.** The model gives Goulet a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.