UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Kenny Florian (12-4) taking on Joe Lauzon (14-12). Florian will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Florian is rated at 1304 — 269 points above Lauzon's 1036. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Florian looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lauzon is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Florian the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Florian throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.1 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kenny Florian over Joe Lauzon.** We're leaning Florian here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Gray Maynard (11-6-1) taking on Frankie Edgar (18-10-1). Maynard is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Edgar is rated at 1185 — 211 points above Maynard's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Maynard looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Edgar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Maynard the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Gray Maynard.** The model gives Edgar a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-11) taking on Karo Parisyan (8-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Parisyan at 1037 versus Alves at 901. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Alves's knockout artist game against Parisyan's wrestler approach. Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Parisyan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Karo Parisyan over Thiago Alves.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Parisyan at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Matt Hamill (10-4) taking on Tim Boetsch (12-11).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hamill at 1150, Boetsch at 1174. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Boetsch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Boetsch over Matt Hamill.** The model gives Boetsch a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Kurt Pellegrino (7-4). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Diaz is rated at 1557 — 342 points above Pellegrino's 1215. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Diaz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pellegrino looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pellegrino the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pellegrino throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pellegrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Pellegrino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Diaz over Kurt Pellegrino.** The model gives Diaz a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features James Irvin (4-5) taking on Houston Alexander (2-3). Irvin is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Irvin carries a modest Elo edge (855 to 779), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alexander throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Alexander is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Alexander has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: James Irvin over Houston Alexander.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Irvin at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Josh Neer (6-8) taking on Din Thomas (5-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Thomas at 1012 versus Neer at 872. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thomas throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Neer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Thomas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Din Thomas over Josh Neer.** The model gives Thomas a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Marcus Aurelio (2-3) taking on Ryan Roberts (0-0).

Aurelio carries a modest Elo edge (969 to 902), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aurelio throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Aurelio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcus Aurelio over Ryan Roberts.** We're leaning Aurelio here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Manvel Gamburyan (6-7) taking on Jeff Cox (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gamburyan at 972 versus Cox at 824. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gamburyan throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cox is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Gamburyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Manvel Gamburyan over Jeff Cox.** The model gives Gamburyan a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Samy Schiavo (0-1).

Guida is rated at 926 — 155 points above Schiavo's 771. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Schiavo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Clay Guida over Samy Schiavo.** The model is firm on this one: Guida at 80%.

The Welterweight matchup features George Sotiropoulos (7-3) taking on Roman Mitichyan (1-0).

Mitichyan carries a modest Elo edge (983 to 918), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sotiropoulos throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitichyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 39.1 more per 15 minutes. Mitichyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: George Sotiropoulos over Roman Mitichyan.** The model is firm on this one: Sotiropoulos at 76%.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-5) taking on Tommy Speer (0-1). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1708 — 928 points above Speer's 780. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Tommy Speer.** We're leaning Johnson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.