UFC 79: Nemesis: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Matt Hughes (18-6). St-Pierre is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 749 points above Hughes's 1273. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. St-Pierre throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Matt Hughes. The model is firm on this one: St-Pierre at 78%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-6) taking on Wanderlei Silva (4-7). Liddell is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 1282 — 247 points above Liddell's 1035. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Liddell brings a versatile approach, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chuck Liddell over Wanderlei Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Liddell at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Eddie Sanchez (3-2) taking on Soa Palelei (4-2). Palelei is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Palelei at 1009 versus Sanchez at 919. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Palelei has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eddie Sanchez over Soa Palelei. The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (1-1). Sokoudjou will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Machida is rated at 1493 — 506 points above Sokoudjou's 987. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Machida throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Machida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Sokoudjou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lyoto Machida over Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou. We're leaning Machida here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Rich Clementi (5-4) taking on Melvin Guillard (12-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Guillard at 1177 versus Clementi at 1034. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Clementi looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Guillard is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Clementi the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guillard throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Guillard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rich Clementi over Melvin Guillard. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Clementi at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features James Irvin (4-5) taking on Luiz Cane (4-4).

Cane carries a modest Elo edge (922 to 855), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Irvin is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cane brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Irvin the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Irvin throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luiz Cane over James Irvin. The model gives Cane a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Manvel Gamburyan (6-7) taking on Nate Mohr (1-2). Mohr is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Gamburyan is rated at 972 — 243 points above Mohr's 729. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mohr throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamburyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Mohr has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Mohr over Manvel Gamburyan. The model gives Mohr a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Dean Lister (4-1) taking on Jordan Radev (0-1).

Lister is rated at 1214 — 372 points above Radev's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Radev throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lister is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Lister has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dean Lister over Jordan Radev. The model is firm on this one: Lister at 81%.

The Welterweight matchup features Roan Carneiro (4-4) taking on Tony DeSouza (3-2). Carneiro will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Carneiro is rated at 1115 — 237 points above DeSouza's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carneiro throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Carneiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Carneiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roan Carneiro over Tony DeSouza. The model is firm on this one: Carneiro at 75%.

The Lightweight matchup features Mark Bocek (7-5) taking on Doug Evans (0-1).

Bocek is rated at 1230 — 378 points above Evans's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evans throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.1 more per 15 minutes. Evans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Doug Evans over Mark Bocek. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Evans at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.