UFC 70: Nations Collide: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9) taking on Mirko Filipovic (4-6). Gonzaga will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Filipovic is rated at 1145 — 178 points above Gonzaga's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gonzaga's all-rounder game against Filipovic's knockout artist approach. Gonzaga is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Filipovic is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Filipovic throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Filipovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga over Mirko Filipovic. We're leaning Gonzaga here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Fabricio Werdum (11-6).

Werdum is rated at 1495 — 637 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Werdum looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Werdum the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Werdum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Werdum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Fabricio Werdum. We're leaning Arlovski here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Elvis Sinosic (1-5). Sinosic is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 702 points above Sinosic's 820. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bisping's striker game against Sinosic's wrestler approach. Bisping brings a versatile approach, while Sinosic looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Bisping over Elvis Sinosic. The model is firm on this one: Bisping at 79%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on David Heath (2-2). Machida is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Machida is rated at 1493 — 648 points above Heath's 845. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Machida throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Machida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lyoto Machida over David Heath. We're leaning Machida here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-5-1) taking on Assuerio Silva (0-2).

Kongo is rated at 1183 — 312 points above Silva's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Assuerio Silva. We're leaning Kongo here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Terry Etim (6-4) taking on Matt Grice (2-4). Etim is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Etim at 947 versus Grice at 813. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grice throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Grice is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Grice has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Terry Etim over Matt Grice. The model gives Etim a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Junior Assuncao (2-2) taking on David Lee (0-1).

Assuncao is rated at 963 — 192 points above Lee's 771. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Lee over Junior Assuncao. We're leaning Lee here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alessio Sakara (6-7) taking on Victor Valimaki (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sakara at 931 versus Valimaki at 782. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sakara throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sakara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Valimaki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alessio Sakara over Victor Valimaki. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sakara at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Jess Liaudin (2-2) taking on Dennis Siver (11-8). Liaudin is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Siver is rated at 1214 — 274 points above Liaudin's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Siver throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Siver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jess Liaudin over Dennis Siver. The model gives Liaudin a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Paul Taylor (3-5) taking on Edilberto de Oliveira (0-1).

Taylor is rated at 1057 — 257 points above Oliveira's 799. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edilberto de Oliveira over Paul Taylor. The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.