UFC 69: Shootout: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Serra (7-6) taking on Georges St-Pierre (19-2). St-Pierre is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 821 points above Serra's 1201. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre has won 12 straight.

The style clash matters here: Serra looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while St-Pierre is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Serra the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. St-Pierre throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Serra over Georges St-Pierre.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Serra at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-9) taking on Diego Sanchez (19-12).

Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 200 points above Koscheck's 939. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Diego Sanchez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Koscheck at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Roger Huerta (6-1) taking on Leonard Garcia (2-6).

Huerta is rated at 1257 — 588 points above Garcia's 669. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Huerta looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Garcia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Huerta the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Huerta throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Huerta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.9 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roger Huerta over Leonard Garcia.** We're leaning Huerta here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-6) taking on Mike Swick (10-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Okami at 1061, Swick at 1045. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Okami looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Swick is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Okami the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swick throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Okami is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yushin Okami over Mike Swick.** The model gives Okami a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Kendall Grove (7-5) taking on Alan Belcher (9-5). Grove is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Belcher is rated at 1293 — 300 points above Grove's 994. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grove throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Grove is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Belcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kendall Grove over Alan Belcher.** The model gives Grove a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Heath Herring (2-2) taking on Brad Imes (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Herring at 932 versus Imes at 785. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Imes throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Imes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Herring has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Heath Herring over Brad Imes.** We're leaning Herring here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Thales Leites (12-8) taking on Pete Sell (2-4). Leites is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Leites is rated at 1176 — 314 points above Sell's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leites throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Sell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pete Sell over Thales Leites.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sell at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Marcus Davis (9-5) taking on Pete Spratt (3-3).

Davis is rated at 1032 — 151 points above Spratt's 881. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Spratt is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spratt the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Spratt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcus Davis over Pete Spratt.** The model gives Davis a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Luke Cummo (3-3) taking on Josh Haynes (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Cummo at 896 versus Haynes at 746. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummo throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Cummo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luke Cummo over Josh Haynes.** The model is firm on this one: Cummo at 76%.