The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale
Saturday, November 11, 2006·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 5/8Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✓
Matt Serra won by Decision - Split (R3)
Serra 74%26% Lytle
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +183(favors Serra)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Lytle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Serra)
Middleweight✗
Travis Lutter won by Submission (R1)
Lutter 44%56% Cote
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +115(favors Lutter)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Cote)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Lutter)
Lightweight✓
Din Thomas won by Submission (R2)
Thomas 67%33% Clementi
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +150(favors Thomas)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Clementi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Clementi)
Middleweight✗
Jorge Rivera won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rivera 37%63% DeWees
LEAN
→Elo gap: +63(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors DeWees)
Welterweight✓
Pete Spratt won by Submission (R2)
Spratt 54%46% Jackson
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +134(favors Spratt)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Spratt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Spratt)
Middleweight✗
Scott Smith won by KO/TKO (R2)
Smith 46%54% Sell
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -96(favors Sell)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Sell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Sell)
Middleweight✓
Charles McCarthy won by Submission (R1)
McCarthy 61%39% Ray
LEAN
→Elo gap: +91(favors McCarthy)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Ray)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Ray)
Middleweight✓
Martin Kampmann won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kampmann 72%28% Leites
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +111(favors Kampmann)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.4(favors Kampmann)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.0(favors Kampmann)