The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Serra (7-6) taking on Chris Lytle (9-10). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Lytle.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lytle at 1330 versus Serra at 1201. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lytle throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Serra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Lytle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Serra over Chris Lytle.** We're leaning Serra here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Travis Lutter (2-3) taking on Patrick Cote (10-10).

Cote is rated at 1221 — 255 points above Lutter's 966. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cote throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lutter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Cote has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Patrick Cote over Travis Lutter.** The model gives Cote a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Din Thomas (5-3) taking on Rich Clementi (5-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Thomas at 1012, Clementi at 1034. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clementi throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Clementi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Thomas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Din Thomas over Rich Clementi.** We're leaning Thomas here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Jorge Rivera (7-7) taking on Edwin DeWees (0-2).

Rivera is rated at 1174 — 386 points above DeWees's 788. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. DeWees is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Edwin DeWees over Jorge Rivera.** The model gives DeWees a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Pete Spratt (3-3) taking on Jeremy Jackson (0-1).

Spratt carries a modest Elo edge (881 to 820), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spratt throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Spratt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Spratt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pete Spratt over Jeremy Jackson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Spratt at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Scott Smith (1-2) taking on Pete Sell (2-4). Sell will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Smith at 836, Sell at 863. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sell throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Sell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pete Sell over Scott Smith.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sell at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Charles McCarthy (1-1) taking on Gideon Ray (0-2).

McCarthy is rated at 960 — 213 points above Ray's 747. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ray throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ray is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. McCarthy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles McCarthy over Gideon Ray.** The model gives McCarthy a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Martin Kampmann (11-5) taking on Thales Leites (12-8). Leites will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Kampmann is rated at 1358 — 181 points above Leites's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Kampmann is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Leites looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Leites the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kampmann throws significantly more leather — a 6.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kampmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Leites has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Martin Kampmann over Thales Leites.** We're leaning Kampmann here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.