UFC 63: Hughes vs Penn: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 63: Hughes vs Penn lands on Saturday, September 23, 2006 in Anaheim, California, USA with 9 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hughes vs BJ PennWelterweight | Matt Hughes | Toss-up | 54% |
| Mike Swick vs David LoiseauMiddleweight | Mike Swick | Confident | 67% |
| Melvin Guillard vs Gabe RuedigerLightweight | Melvin Guillard | Strong | 84% |
| Rashad Evans vs Jason LambertLight Heavyweight | Rashad Evans | Lean | 63% |
| Joe Lauzon vs Jens PulverLightweight | Joe Lauzon | Confident | 67% |
| Roger Huerta vs Jason DentLightweight | Roger Huerta | Lean | 57% |
| Eddie Sanchez vs Mario NetoHeavyweight | Eddie Sanchez | Lean | 61% |
| Jorge Gurgel vs Danny AbbadiLightweight | Jorge Gurgel | Confident | 66% |
| Tyson Griffin vs David LeeLightweight | David Lee | Lean | 62% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Matt Hughes vs BJ Penn
The Welterweight matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on BJ Penn (12-12-2). Hughes will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Hughes is rated at 1273 — 335 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Hughes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hughes the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Penn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Hughes over BJ Penn. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hughes at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Mike Swick vs David Loiseau
The Middleweight matchup features Mike Swick (10-4) taking on David Loiseau (4-4).
There's a real Elo separation here: Swick at 1045 versus Loiseau at 919. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Swick throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Loiseau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Swick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mike Swick over David Loiseau. We're leaning Swick here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Melvin Guillard vs Gabe Ruediger
The Lightweight matchup features Melvin Guillard (12-8) taking on Gabe Ruediger (0-2).
Guillard is rated at 1177 — 402 points above Ruediger's 775. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Guillard throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Guillard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Ruediger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Melvin Guillard over Gabe Ruediger. The model is firm on this one: Guillard at 84%.
Rashad Evans vs Jason Lambert
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Jason Lambert (4-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Lambert.
Evans is rated at 1121 — 231 points above Lambert's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Evans's striker game against Lambert's submission artist approach. Evans brings a versatile approach, while Lambert is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lambert throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Evans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rashad Evans over Jason Lambert. The model gives Evans a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Joe Lauzon vs Jens Pulver
The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (14-12) taking on Jens Pulver (6-1-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Lauzon.
There's a real Elo separation here: Pulver at 1133 versus Lauzon at 1036. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is Lauzon's all-rounder game against Pulver's knockout artist approach. Lauzon is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pulver is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pulver throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pulver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Jens Pulver. We're leaning Lauzon here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Roger Huerta vs Jason Dent
The Lightweight matchup features Roger Huerta (6-1) taking on Jason Dent (1-2).
Huerta is rated at 1257 — 301 points above Dent's 956. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Dent throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dent is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dent has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Roger Huerta over Jason Dent. The model gives Huerta a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Eddie Sanchez vs Mario Neto
The Heavyweight matchup features Eddie Sanchez (3-2) taking on Mario Neto (0-0).
Sanchez carries a modest Elo edge (919 to 873), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Neto throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Neto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Neto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Eddie Sanchez over Mario Neto. The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Jorge Gurgel vs Danny Abbadi
The Lightweight matchup features Jorge Gurgel (3-3) taking on Danny Abbadi (0-1).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Gurgel at 811, Abbadi at 835. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gurgel throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Abbadi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gurgel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jorge Gurgel over Danny Abbadi. We're leaning Gurgel here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Tyson Griffin vs David Lee
The Lightweight matchup features Tyson Griffin (8-5) taking on David Lee (0-1).
Griffin is rated at 925 — 155 points above Lee's 771. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: David Lee over Tyson Griffin. The model gives Lee a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.