UFC Fight Night 3: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Tim Sylvia (9-3) taking on Assuerio Silva (0-2).

Sylvia is rated at 1296 — 424 points above Silva's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sylvia throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Sylvia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Sylvia over Assuerio Silva. The model is firm on this one: Sylvia at 85%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Stephan Bonnar (8-6) taking on James Irvin (4-5). Bonnar is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Bonnar is rated at 1278 — 423 points above Irvin's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Bonnar's wrestler game against Irvin's knockout artist approach. Bonnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Irvin is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonnar throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bonnar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Bonnar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephan Bonnar over James Irvin. We're leaning Bonnar here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Joshua Burkman (6-11) taking on Drew Fickett (3-3).

Fickett is rated at 1140 — 396 points above Burkman's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burkman throws significantly more leather — a 11.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 41.4 more per 15 minutes. Fickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joshua Burkman over Drew Fickett. The model gives Burkman a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Leben (12-9) taking on Jorge Rivera (7-7).

Rivera is rated at 1174 — 319 points above Leben's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Leben's all-rounder game against Rivera's striker approach. Leben is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rivera brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Leben is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Leben has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Leben over Jorge Rivera. We're leaning Leben here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Neer (6-8) taking on Melvin Guillard (12-8).

Guillard is rated at 1177 — 305 points above Neer's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Neer looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Guillard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Neer the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guillard throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Guillard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.7 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melvin Guillard over Josh Neer. The model gives Guillard a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Duane Ludwig (4-4) taking on Jonathan Goulet (4-4). Goulet is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Goulet at 997 versus Ludwig at 853. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ludwig's striker game against Goulet's submission artist approach. Ludwig brings a versatile approach, while Goulet is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ludwig throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Goulet is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ludwig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Goulet over Duane Ludwig. The model gives Goulet a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Spencer Fisher (9-7) taking on Aaron Riley (3-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Fisher at 876, Riley at 858. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Fisher's all-rounder game against Riley's striker approach. Fisher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Riley brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riley throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fisher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Fisher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Spencer Fisher over Aaron Riley. The model gives Fisher a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jason Von Flue (1-1) taking on Alex Karalexis (1-1).

Flue carries a modest Elo edge (897 to 835), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Karalexis throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Karalexis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Flue has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Karalexis over Jason Von Flue. The model gives Karalexis a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.