UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Saturday, November 22, 2025·Doha, Qatar
Model Record: 11/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✓
Arman Tsarukyan won by Submission (R2)
Tsarukyan 71%29% Hooker
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +194(favors Tsarukyan)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Hooker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Tsarukyan)
Welterweight✓
Ian Machado Garry won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Garry 50%50% Muhammad
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -227(favors Muhammad)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Muhammad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Muhammad)
Light Heavyweight✓
Volkan Oezdemir won by KO/TKO (R1)
Oezdemir 66%34% Menifield
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Oezdemir)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Oezdemir)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Oezdemir)
Welterweight✓
Myktybek Orolbai won by KO/TKO (R1)
Orolbai 64%36% Hermansson
LEAN
→Elo gap: +8(favors Orolbai)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.3(favors Orolbai)
Heavyweight✓
Waldo Cortes Acosta won by KO/TKO (R1)
Acosta 61%39% Gaziev
LEAN
→Elo gap: +196(favors Acosta)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Acosta)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Gaziev)
Flyweight✗
Kyoji Horiguchi won by Submission (R3)
Horiguchi 41%59% Ulanbekov
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -4(favors Ulanbekov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Ulanbekov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ulanbekov)
Featherweight✗
Luke Riley won by KO/TKO (R2)
Riley 44%56% Grad
LEAN
→Elo gap: -12(favors Grad)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Grad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.7(favors Grad)
Welterweight✓
Nicolas Dalby won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dalby 60%40% Izagakhmaev
LEAN
→Elo gap: +258(favors Dalby)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.7(favors Dalby)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Dalby)
Flyweight✓
Asu Almabayev won by Submission (R3)
Almabayev 56%44% Perez
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +62(favors Almabayev)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.3(favors Almabayev)
Light Heavyweight✓
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev won by Submission (R1)
Yakhyaev 65%35% Cerqueira
LEAN
→Elo gap: +226(favors Yakhyaev)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Cerqueira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Cerqueira)
Bantamweight✓
Aleksandre Topuria won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Topuria 61%39% Almakhan
LEAN
→Elo gap: -17(favors Almakhan)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Topuria)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Topuria)
Middleweight✓
Ismail Naurdiev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Naurdiev 53%47% Loder
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +76(favors Naurdiev)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Loder)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Naurdiev)
Lightweight✓
Nurullo Aliev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aliev 71%29% Rock
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +190(favors Aliev)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Aliev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Aliev)
Heavyweight✗
Denzel Freeman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Freeman 46%54% Bujlo
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Bujlo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Bujlo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bujlo)