UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Arman Tsarukyan (9-2) taking on Dan Hooker (14-9). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Tsarukyan is rated at 1836 — 386 points above Hooker's 1450. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Tsarukyan rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Tsarukyan's striker game against Hooker's all-rounder approach. Tsarukyan brings a versatile approach, while Hooker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Tsarukyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Tsarukyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan over Dan Hooker.** We're leaning Tsarukyan here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Ian Machado Garry (9-1) taking on Belal Muhammad (15-4). Garry is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Garry carries a modest Elo edge (1787 to 1747), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Muhammad throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Garry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ian Machado Garry over Belal Muhammad.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Garry at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Volkan Oezdemir (8-7) taking on Alonzo Menifield (10-5-1).

Oezdemir is rated at 1501 — 293 points above Menifield's 1207. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oezdemir throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Oezdemir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Oezdemir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Volkan Oezdemir over Alonzo Menifield.** We're leaning Oezdemir here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Myktybek Orolbai (3-1) taking on Jack Hermansson (11-7). Hermansson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Orolbai is rated at 1374 — 257 points above Hermansson's 1117. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Orolbai is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Hermansson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Myktybek Orolbai over Jack Hermansson.** The model gives Orolbai a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Waldo Cortes Acosta (9-2) taking on Shamil Gaziev (3-1).

Acosta is rated at 1637 — 428 points above Gaziev's 1209. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Acosta throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gaziev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Acosta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Waldo Cortes Acosta over Shamil Gaziev.** The model gives Acosta a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Kyoji Horiguchi (8-1) taking on Tagir Ulanbekov (6-1). Ulanbekov is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Horiguchi is rated at 1528 — 267 points above Ulanbekov's 1261. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Horiguchi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one, while Ulanbekov has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Horiguchi's striker game against Ulanbekov's wrestler approach. Horiguchi brings a versatile approach, while Ulanbekov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulanbekov throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ulanbekov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Horiguchi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov over Kyoji Horiguchi.** The model gives Ulanbekov a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Luke Riley (0-0) taking on Bogdan Grad (1-1).

Riley is rated at 1132 — 252 points above Grad's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grad throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Grad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Riley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bogdan Grad over Luke Riley.** The model gives Grad a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1) taking on Saygid Izagakhmaev (0-0).

Dalby is rated at 1283 — 308 points above Izagakhmaev's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dalby throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dalby is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Izagakhmaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nicolas Dalby over Saygid Izagakhmaev.** The model gives Dalby a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Asu Almabayev (5-1) taking on Alex Perez (7-6).

Almabayev carries a modest Elo edge (1349 to 1293), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Almabayev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Perez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Almabayev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Almabayev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez.** The model gives Almabayev a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (0-0) taking on Rafael Cerqueira (0-3).

Yakhyaev is rated at 1047 — 321 points above Cerqueira's 727. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerqueira throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerqueira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yakhyaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev over Rafael Cerqueira.** The model gives Yakhyaev a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aleksandre Topuria (1-0) taking on Bekzat Almakhan (1-1).

Topuria is rated at 1174 — 162 points above Almakhan's 1013. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Topuria throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Topuria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Topuria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aleksandre Topuria over Bekzat Almakhan.** The model gives Topuria a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ismail Naurdiev (3-3) taking on Ryan Loder (1-1). Loder is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Naurdiev is rated at 1183 — 276 points above Loder's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loder throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Naurdiev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Naurdiev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ismail Naurdiev over Ryan Loder.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Naurdiev at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Nurullo Aliev (2-0) taking on Shem Rock (0-0).

Aliev is rated at 1232 — 275 points above Rock's 957. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aliev throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Aliev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Rock has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nurullo Aliev over Shem Rock.** We're leaning Aliev here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Denzel Freeman (1-0) taking on Marek Bujlo (0-0). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Bujlo.

Freeman carries a modest Elo edge (973 to 915), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bujlo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bujlo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bujlo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marek Bujlo over Denzel Freeman.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bujlo at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.