UFC Fight Night 1: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Marquardt (13-11) taking on Ivan Salaverry (3-3).

Marquardt is rated at 1064 — 190 points above Salaverry's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salaverry throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Salaverry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ivan Salaverry over Nate Marquardt.** We're leaning Salaverry here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Leben (12-9) taking on Patrick Cote (10-10).

Cote is rated at 1221 — 366 points above Leben's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leben throws significantly more leather — a 15.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Leben is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.5 more per 15 minutes. Leben has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Leben over Patrick Cote.** We're leaning Leben here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Stephan Bonnar (8-6) taking on Sam Hoger (2-2).

Bonnar is rated at 1278 — 353 points above Hoger's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonnar throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hoger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hoger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sam Hoger over Stephan Bonnar.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hoger at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Quarry (7-2) taking on Pete Sell (2-4). Sell will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Quarry is rated at 1179 — 316 points above Sell's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Quarry's striker game against Sell's wrestler approach. Quarry brings a versatile approach, while Sell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarry throws significantly more leather — a 8.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Quarry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pete Sell over Nate Quarry.** The model gives Sell a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-9) taking on Pete Spratt (3-3).

Koscheck carries a modest Elo edge (939 to 881), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Koscheck is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Spratt is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spratt the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Koscheck throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.6 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Pete Spratt.** The model is firm on this one: Koscheck at 80%.

The Middleweight matchup features Mike Swick (10-4) taking on Gideon Ray (0-2).

Swick is rated at 1045 — 298 points above Ray's 747. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swick throws significantly more leather — a 18.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ray is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Swick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Swick over Gideon Ray.** We're leaning Swick here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Kenny Florian (12-4) taking on Alex Karalexis (1-1). Florian is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Florian is rated at 1304 — 470 points above Karalexis's 835. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Karalexis throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Karalexis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Karalexis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Karalexis over Kenny Florian.** The model gives Karalexis a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Drew Fickett (3-3) taking on Josh Neer (6-8).

Fickett is rated at 1140 — 267 points above Neer's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fickett throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Neer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Neer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Neer over Drew Fickett.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Neer at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.