UFC 52: Couture vs Liddell 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-6) taking on Randy Couture (16-7).

Couture is rated at 1248 — 212 points above Liddell's 1035. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Couture has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Liddell's striker game against Couture's wrestler approach. Liddell brings a versatile approach, while Couture looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Couture is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Couture has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Randy Couture over Chuck Liddell.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Couture at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Renato Sobral (5-4) taking on Travis Wiuff (0-1).

Sobral is rated at 1190 — 340 points above Wiuff's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sobral throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobral is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Sobral has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Renato Sobral over Travis Wiuff.** We're leaning Sobral here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on Frank Trigg (2-4).

Hughes is rated at 1273 — 336 points above Trigg's 937. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hughes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Trigg is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Hughes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trigg throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Trigg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Hughes over Frank Trigg.** The model gives Hughes a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Matt Lindland (8-3) taking on Travis Lutter (2-3).

Lindland is rated at 1239 — 272 points above Lutter's 966. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lindland looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lutter is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lindland the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lindland throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lindland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Lutter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Lindland over Travis Lutter.** The model gives Lindland a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Jason Miller (0-2).

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 1171 points above Miller's 851. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. St-Pierre throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Jason Miller.** The model is firm on this one: St-Pierre at 83%.

The Middleweight matchup features Ivan Salaverry (3-3) taking on Joe Riggs (5-6).

Salaverry carries a modest Elo edge (874 to 842), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Salaverry is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Riggs is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Riggs the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riggs throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Riggs is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Salaverry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Riggs over Ivan Salaverry.** We're leaning Riggs here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Joe Doerksen (2-6) taking on Patrick Cote (10-10).

Cote is rated at 1221 — 296 points above Doerksen's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Doerksen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cote is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Doerksen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cote throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Doerksen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Doerksen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Doerksen over Patrick Cote.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Doerksen at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mike van Arsdale (2-1) taking on John Marsh (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Arsdale at 1043 versus Marsh at 941. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arsdale throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Arsdale is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Marsh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike van Arsdale over John Marsh.** We're leaning Arsdale here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.