UFC 51: Super Saturday: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tito Ortiz (15-10-1) taking on Vitor Belfort (15-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Ortiz.

Belfort is rated at 1255 — 196 points above Ortiz's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ortiz's wrestler game against Belfort's knockout artist approach. Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Vitor Belfort.** The model gives Ortiz a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Pete Sell (2-4) taking on Phil Baroni (3-6). Sell is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Sell at 863 versus Baroni at 762. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Sell's wrestler game against Baroni's striker approach. Sell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Baroni brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baroni throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Baroni is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Sell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pete Sell over Phil Baroni.** The model gives Sell a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Tim Sylvia (9-3). Sylvia is the bigger frame at 6'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sylvia is rated at 1296 — 438 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Arlovski's knockout artist game against Sylvia's all-rounder approach. Arlovski is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sylvia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sylvia throws significantly more leather — a 9.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sylvia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Tim Sylvia.** The model gives Arlovski a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Evan Tanner (11-5) taking on David Terrell (1-1).

Terrell is rated at 1197 — 162 points above Tanner's 1034. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Terrell throws significantly more leather — a 7.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Tanner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Terrell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Evan Tanner over David Terrell.** The model gives Tanner a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Paul Buentello (3-2) taking on Justin Eilers (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Buentello at 1019 versus Eilers at 892. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eilers throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Eilers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Buentello has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Eilers over Paul Buentello.** We're leaning Eilers here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mike Kyle (1-1) taking on James Irvin (4-5). Kyle is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Kyle is rated at 1087 — 232 points above Irvin's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kyle throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Irvin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Irvin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Kyle over James Irvin.** The model gives Kyle a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features David Loiseau (4-4) taking on Gideon Ray (0-2).

Loiseau is rated at 919 — 172 points above Ray's 747. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loiseau throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Loiseau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ray has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Loiseau over Gideon Ray.** The model gives Loiseau a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Karo Parisyan (8-3) taking on Chris Lytle (9-10). Parisyan will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lytle is rated at 1330 — 293 points above Parisyan's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Parisyan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lytle is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Parisyan the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lytle throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Parisyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Karo Parisyan over Chris Lytle.** We're leaning Parisyan here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Nick Diaz (7-6) taking on Drew Fickett (3-3). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Diaz carries a modest Elo edge (1185 to 1140), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Diaz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Fickett looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Fickett the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Fickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nick Diaz over Drew Fickett.** We're leaning Diaz here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.