UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Nassourdine Imavov (8-2) taking on Jared Cannonier (11-8). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Imavov.

Imavov is rated at 1876 — 450 points above Cannonier's 1426. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Imavov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Imavov is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cannonier brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Imavov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Imavov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Imavov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nassourdine Imavov over Jared Cannonier.** The model gives Imavov a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dominick Reyes (9-4) taking on Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1).

Reyes is rated at 1529 — 155 points above Jacoby's 1374. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Reyes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Reyes is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jacoby brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Reyes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Jacoby over Dominick Reyes.** The model gives Jacoby a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raul Rosas Jr. (4-1) taking on Ricky Turcios (2-2). Turcios will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jr. is rated at 1251 — 422 points above Turcios's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jr. rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turcios throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. over Ricky Turcios.** We're leaning Jr. here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Brunno Ferreira (5-2) taking on Dustin Stoltzfus (3-6). Stoltzfus is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Ferreira is rated at 1344 — 332 points above Stoltzfus's 1012. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ferreira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Stoltzfus looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Stoltzfus the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoltzfus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Stoltzfus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brunno Ferreira over Dustin Stoltzfus.** The model gives Ferreira a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Zach Reese (4-2) taking on Julian Marquez (3-4). Reese is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Reese is rated at 993 — 332 points above Marquez's 660. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marquez throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Marquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zach Reese over Julian Marquez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Reese at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Punahele Soriano (6-4) taking on Miguel Baeza (3-3). Baeza is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Soriano is rated at 1288 — 438 points above Baeza's 850. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Soriano rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Soriano brings a versatile approach, while Baeza is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Baeza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baeza throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Baeza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Baeza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Miguel Baeza over Punahele Soriano.** The model gives Baeza a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Ludovit Klein (7-3-1) taking on Thiago Moises (8-6).

Klein is rated at 1364 — 240 points above Moises's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Klein's striker game against Moises's submission artist approach. Klein brings a versatile approach, while Moises is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Klein throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Moises is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Klein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ludovit Klein over Thiago Moises.** The model gives Klein a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Prates (5-1) taking on Charles Radtke (3-2). Prates is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Prates is rated at 1806 — 725 points above Radtke's 1082. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prates throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Radtke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Radtke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Radtke over Carlos Prates.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Radtke at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brad Katona (4-4) taking on Jesse Butler (0-1). Butler is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Katona at 838, Butler at 849. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Katona throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Katona is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Katona has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Katona over Jesse Butler.** The model gives Katona a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Montana De La Rosa (5-5-1) taking on Andrea Lee (5-8).

Rosa is rated at 1036 — 172 points above Lee's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rosa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rosa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Montana De La Rosa over Andrea Lee.** The model gives Rosa a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Daniel Marcos (4-1) taking on John Castaneda (4-3).

Marcos is rated at 1352 — 234 points above Castaneda's 1117. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Marcos's striker game against Castaneda's all-rounder approach. Marcos brings a versatile approach, while Castaneda is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marcos throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Castaneda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Marcos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Marcos over John Castaneda.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Marcos at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Denise Gomes (5-2) taking on Eduarda Moura (3-1). Moura is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gomes is rated at 1370 — 229 points above Moura's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Gomes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moura throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Moura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Moura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eduarda Moura over Denise Gomes.** The model gives Moura a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Taylor Lapilus (5-2) taking on Cody Stamann (7-6-1). Lapilus will look to use a 9-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lapilus is rated at 1238 — 307 points above Stamann's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lapilus's all-rounder game against Stamann's striker approach. Lapilus is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stamann brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stamann throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Stamann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Lapilus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Taylor Lapilus over Cody Stamann.** We're leaning Lapilus here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Puja Tomar (1-0) taking on Rayanne dos Santos (0-2). Santos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Tomar at 918 versus Santos at 777. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tomar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rayanne dos Santos over Puja Tomar.** The model gives Santos a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.