UFC 46: Supernatural: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 46: Supernatural lands on Saturday, January 31, 2004 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 8 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Belfort vs Randy CoutureLight Heavyweight | Randy Couture | Lean | 61% |
| Renato Verissimo vs Carlos NewtonWelterweight | Carlos Newton | Strong | 81% |
| BJ Penn vs Matt HughesWelterweight | Matt Hughes | Lean | 64% |
| Frank Mir vs Wes SimsHeavyweight | Frank Mir | Strong | 77% |
| Lee Murray vs Jorge RiveraMiddleweight | Jorge Rivera | Lean | 64% |
| Georges St-Pierre vs Karo ParisyanWelterweight | Karo Parisyan | Confident | 70% |
| Josh Thomson vs Hermes FrancaLightweight | Josh Thomson | Confident | 70% |
| Matt Serra vs Jeff CurranLightweight | Jeff Curran | Toss-up | 53% |
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Vitor Belfort vs Randy Couture
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-10) taking on Randy Couture (16-8).
Belfort carries a modest Elo edge (1440 to 1390), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Couture has won 3 straight.
Stylistically this is Belfort's knockout artist game against Couture's wrestler approach. Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Couture looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Couture throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Couture is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Couture has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Randy Couture over Vitor Belfort. The model gives Couture a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Renato Verissimo vs Carlos Newton
The Welterweight matchup features Renato Verissimo (1-2) taking on Carlos Newton (3-4).
Newton carries a modest Elo edge (1045 to 1010), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Newton throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Newton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Verissimo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Carlos Newton over Renato Verissimo. The model is firm on this one: Newton at 81%.
BJ Penn vs Matt Hughes
The Welterweight matchup features BJ Penn (12-13-2) taking on Matt Hughes (18-7). Hughes will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Hughes is rated at 1368 — 226 points above Penn's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hughes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hughes the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Hughes over BJ Penn. The model gives Hughes a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-11) taking on Wes Sims (0-3).
Mir is rated at 1367 — 593 points above Sims's 774. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mir throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Sims has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Frank Mir over Wes Sims. The model is firm on this one: Mir at 77%.
Lee Murray vs Jorge Rivera
The Middleweight matchup features Lee Murray (1-0) taking on Jorge Rivera (8-7).
Murray carries a modest Elo edge (1249 to 1203), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Murray has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jorge Rivera over Lee Murray. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Georges St-Pierre vs Karo Parisyan
The Welterweight matchup features Georges St-Pierre (20-2) taking on Karo Parisyan (8-4). St-Pierre will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
St-Pierre is rated at 2010 — 867 points above Parisyan's 1143. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Parisyan throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 11.6 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Karo Parisyan over Georges St-Pierre. We're leaning Parisyan here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Josh Thomson vs Hermes Franca
The Lightweight matchup features Josh Thomson (3-4) taking on Hermes Franca (6-5). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Thomson.
Thomson is rated at 1357 — 201 points above Franca's 1156. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Thomson's striker game against Franca's wrestler approach. Thomson brings a versatile approach, while Franca looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Thomson throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Thomson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Thomson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Josh Thomson over Hermes Franca. We're leaning Thomson here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Matt Serra vs Jeff Curran
The Lightweight matchup features Matt Serra (7-7) taking on Jeff Curran (0-3).
Serra is rated at 1275 — 568 points above Curran's 707. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Serra throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Serra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Curran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jeff Curran over Matt Serra. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Curran at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.