UFC - Ultimate Ultimate '96: Predictions & Analysis

The Open Weight matchup features Don Frye (6-1) taking on David Abbott (8-9).

Frye is rated at 1404 — 627 points above Abbott's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Frye's striker game against Abbott's submission artist approach. Frye brings a versatile approach, while Abbott is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frye throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Frye is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Frye has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Don Frye over David Abbott.** The model is firm on this one: Frye at 78%.

The Open Weight matchup features David Abbott (8-9) taking on Steve Nelmark (1-0).

Nelmark is rated at 1005 — 228 points above Abbott's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nelmark throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelmark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Abbott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Abbott over Steve Nelmark.** We're leaning Abbott here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features Don Frye (6-1) taking on Mark Hall (3-2).

Frye is rated at 1404 — 353 points above Hall's 1051. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frye throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Frye is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Frye has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Don Frye over Mark Hall.** The model is firm on this one: Frye at 90%.

The Open Weight matchup features Ken Shamrock (6-4-2) taking on Brian Johnston (2-3).

Shamrock is rated at 1125 — 210 points above Johnston's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnston throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnston is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Shamrock has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brian Johnston over Ken Shamrock.** The model gives Johnston a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Kimo Leopoldo (2-3) taking on Paul Varelans (4-3).

Leopoldo carries a modest Elo edge (1039 to 962), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leopoldo throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Leopoldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Leopoldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kimo Leopoldo over Paul Varelans.** The model gives Leopoldo a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features David Abbott (8-9) taking on Cal Worsham (1-1).

Worsham is rated at 959 — 182 points above Abbott's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Worsham throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Worsham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Worsham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Abbott over Cal Worsham.** The model is firm on this one: Abbott at 81%.

The Open Weight matchup features Don Frye (6-1) taking on Gary Goodridge (3-4).

Frye is rated at 1404 — 213 points above Goodridge's 1190. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Frye is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Goodridge is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Goodridge the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frye throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Goodridge is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Goodridge has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Don Frye over Gary Goodridge.** The model is firm on this one: Frye at 84%.

The Open Weight matchup features Tai Bowden (0-1) taking on Jack Nilson (0-1).

Bowden carries a modest Elo edge (1045 to 1014), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bowden throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nilson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nilson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tai Bowden over Jack Nilson.** We're leaning Bowden here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features Steve Nelmark (1-0) taking on Marcus Bossett (1-1).

Nelmark carries a modest Elo edge (1005 to 925), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nelmark throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelmark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Bossett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Steve Nelmark over Marcus Bossett.** The model is firm on this one: Nelmark at 91%.

The Open Weight matchup features Mark Hall (3-2) taking on Felix Lee Mitchell (0-2).

Hall is rated at 1051 — 265 points above Mitchell's 786. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Hall over Felix Lee Mitchell.** The model is firm on this one: Hall at 87%.