UFC 10: The Tournament: Predictions & Analysis

The Open Weight matchup features Mark Coleman (7-4) taking on Don Frye (6-1).

Frye is rated at 1404 — 408 points above Coleman's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Coleman's wrestler game against Frye's striker approach. Coleman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Frye brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frye throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Frye is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Coleman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Don Frye over Mark Coleman.** We're leaning Frye here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features Mark Coleman (7-4) taking on Gary Goodridge (3-4).

Goodridge is rated at 1190 — 195 points above Coleman's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Coleman's wrestler game against Goodridge's striker approach. Coleman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Goodridge brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Coleman throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Coleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Coleman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Coleman over Gary Goodridge.** The model is firm on this one: Coleman at 89%.

The Open Weight matchup features Don Frye (6-1) taking on Brian Johnston (2-3).

Frye is rated at 1404 — 489 points above Johnston's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Frye's striker game against Johnston's submission artist approach. Frye brings a versatile approach, while Johnston is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frye throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Frye is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Johnston has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Don Frye over Brian Johnston.** The model is firm on this one: Frye at 84%.

The Open Weight matchup features Gary Goodridge (3-4) taking on John Campetella (0-0).

Goodridge is rated at 1190 — 343 points above Campetella's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Goodridge throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Goodridge is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Campetella has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gary Goodridge over John Campetella.** The model is firm on this one: Goodridge at 92%.

The Open Weight matchup features Mark Coleman (7-4) taking on Moti Horenstein (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Coleman at 995 versus Horenstein at 880. That 115-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Coleman throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Coleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Horenstein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Coleman over Moti Horenstein.** The model is firm on this one: Coleman at 91%.

The Open Weight matchup features Brian Johnston (2-3) taking on Scott Fiedler (0-0).

Johnston carries a modest Elo edge (915 to 839), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnston throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Fiedler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fiedler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brian Johnston over Scott Fiedler.** The model is firm on this one: Johnston at 93%.

The Open Weight matchup features Don Frye (6-1) taking on Mark Hall (3-2).

Frye is rated at 1404 — 353 points above Hall's 1051. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Frye's striker game against Hall's submission artist approach. Frye brings a versatile approach, while Hall is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frye throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Frye is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Frye has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Don Frye over Mark Hall.** The model is firm on this one: Frye at 87%.

The Open Weight matchup features Sam Adkins (2-1) taking on Felix Lee Mitchell (0-2).

Adkins is rated at 1002 — 216 points above Mitchell's 786. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitchell throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Adkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sam Adkins over Felix Lee Mitchell.** The model gives Adkins a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Geza Kalman (0-1) taking on Dieusel Berto (0-0).

Kalman is rated at 1075 — 232 points above Berto's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Berto throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Berto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Berto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Geza Kalman over Dieusel Berto.** We're leaning Kalman here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.