UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Saturday, February 28, 2026·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico
Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%Upcoming
Flyweight
Moreno 48%52% Kavanagh
Method Prediction
KO 24%Sub 16%Dec 60%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +386(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Kavanagh)
Bantamweight
Vera 33%67% Martinez
Method Prediction
KO 32%Sub 18%Dec 50%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +235(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Martinez)
Lightweight
Zellhuber 45%55% Green
Method Prediction
KO 36%Sub 32%Dec 32%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -94(favors Green)
Flyweight
Chairez 51%49% Bunes
Method Prediction
KO 21%Sub 43%Dec 36%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +15(favors Chairez)
Flyweight
Rodriguez 50%50% Borjas
Method Prediction
KO 20%Sub 47%Dec 33%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +121(favors Rodriguez)
Bantamweight
Luna 62%38% Pacheco
Method Prediction
KO 29%Sub 42%Dec 29%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +225(favors Luna)
Middleweight
Gandra 55%45% Medina
Method Prediction
KO 34%Sub 43%Dec 23%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +322(favors Gandra)
Women's Bantamweight
Perez 52%48% Chiasson
Method Prediction
KO 22%Sub 48%Dec 30%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Perez)
Bantamweight
Quinonez 52%48% Moutinho
Method Prediction
KO 24%Sub 47%Dec 29%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +173(favors Quinonez)
Featherweight
Andrade 54%46% Reyes
Method Prediction
KO 30%Sub 41%Dec 29%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +145(favors Andrade)
Catch Weight
Rivera 48%52% Kareckaite
Method Prediction
KO 31%Sub 50%Dec 19%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +1(favors Rivera)
Featherweight
Silva 51%49% Marshall
Method Prediction
KO 22%Sub 43%Dec 35%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -96(favors Marshall)
Middleweight
Pinas 55%45% Schultz
Method Prediction
KO 34%Sub 41%Dec 25%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Schultz)