UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-5-2) taking on Lone'er Kavanagh (2-0). Moreno will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Moreno is rated at 1410 — 386 points above Kavanagh's 1024. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The submission threat is elevated here at 42%, with the model also seeing 22% KO/TKO and 37% decision probability.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Lone'er Kavanagh. The model gives Moreno a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-9) taking on David Martinez (1-0). Vera is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Vera is rated at 1460 — 235 points above Martinez's 1225. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The submission threat is elevated here at 42%, with the model also seeing 29% KO/TKO and 30% decision probability.

The Pick: Marlon Vera over David Martinez. The model gives Vera a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Daniel Zellhuber (3-2) taking on King Green (13-12-1). Zellhuber is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Green at 1176 versus Zellhuber at 1082. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Zellhuber's all-rounder game against Green's knockout artist approach. Zellhuber is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Green is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 36% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 32% submission and 32% decision.

The Pick: King Green over Daniel Zellhuber. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Green at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Edgar Chairez (1-2) taking on Felipe Bunes (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Chairez at 1011, Bunes at 996. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The submission threat is elevated here at 43%, with the model also seeing 21% KO/TKO and 36% decision probability.

The Pick: Edgar Chairez over Felipe Bunes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Chairez at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Imanol Rodriguez (0-0) taking on Kevin Borjas (1-2). Borjas will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rodriguez at 1000 versus Borjas at 879. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The submission threat is elevated here at 44%, with the model also seeing 22% KO/TKO and 34% decision probability.

The Pick: Kevin Borjas over Imanol Rodriguez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Borjas at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Santiago Luna (0-0) taking on Angel Pacheco (0-0). Luna will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Luna is rated at 1129 — 225 points above Pacheco's 903. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The submission threat is elevated here at 45%, with the model also seeing 25% KO/TKO and 30% decision probability.

The Pick: Santiago Luna over Angel Pacheco. The model gives Luna a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ryan Gandra (0-0) taking on Jose Daniel Medina (0-2).

Gandra is rated at 1000 — 322 points above Medina's 678. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The submission threat is elevated here at 43%, with the model also seeing 33% KO/TKO and 23% decision probability.

The Pick: Ryan Gandra over Jose Daniel Medina. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gandra at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ailin Perez (4-1) taking on Macy Chiasson (8-4). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Perez at 1291 versus Chiasson at 1145. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Perez rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

The submission threat is elevated here at 48%, with the model also seeing 23% KO/TKO and 30% decision probability.

The Pick: Ailin Perez over Macy Chiasson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Perez at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cristian Quinonez (1-1) taking on Kris Moutinho (0-2).

Quinonez is rated at 915 — 173 points above Moutinho's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The submission threat is elevated here at 47%, with the model also seeing 24% KO/TKO and 29% decision probability.

The Pick: Cristian Quinonez over Kris Moutinho. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Quinonez at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-5) taking on Javier Reyes (0-0). Reyes will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Andrade at 1146 versus Reyes at 1000. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The submission threat is elevated here at 41%, with the model also seeing 30% KO/TKO and 29% decision probability.

The Pick: Douglas Silva de Andrade over Javier Reyes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Andrade at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Catch Weight matchup features Regina Malpica Rivera (0-0) taking on Ernesta Kareckaite (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rivera at 1000, Kareckaite at 999. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The submission threat is elevated here at 50%, with the model also seeing 31% KO/TKO and 19% decision probability.

The Pick: Ernesta Kareckaite over Regina Malpica Rivera. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kareckaite at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Erik Silva (0-1) taking on Francis Marshall (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Marshall at 933 versus Silva at 837. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The submission threat is elevated here at 43%, with the model also seeing 22% KO/TKO and 36% decision probability.

The Pick: Erik Silva over Francis Marshall. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Damian Pinas (0-0) taking on Wes Schultz (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pinas at 1000, Schultz at 1000. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The submission threat is elevated here at 41%, with the model also seeing 34% KO/TKO and 25% decision probability.

The Pick: Damian Pinas over Wes Schultz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pinas at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.