UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Saturday, March 7, 2026·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
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Main Card
LightweightMISS
Charles Oliveira won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Oliveira 38%62% Holloway
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 36% (+2.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Oliveira)
MiddleweightHIT
Caio Borralho won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Borralho 65%35% Ridder
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEANMarket: 66% (-1.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +62(favors Borralho)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Borralho)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Ridder)
BantamweightHIT
Raul Rosas Jr. won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jr. 73%27% Font
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-0.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -183(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.8(favors Jr.)
LightweightHIT
Drew Dober won by KO/TKO (R2)
Dober 50%50% Johnson
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UPMarket: 64% (-13.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -66(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Johnson)
MiddleweightHIT
Gregory Rodrigues won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rodrigues 65%35% Ferreira
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+6.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +185(favors Rodrigues)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Rodrigues)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Rodrigues)
Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Cody Garbrandt won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Garbrandt 52%48% Long
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +265(favors Garbrandt)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Long)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Long)
MiddleweightHIT
Donte Johnson won by Decision - Split (R3)
Johnson 90%10% Brundage
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
STRONGMarket: 86% (+4.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +243(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Brundage)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Johnson)
FeatherweightHIT
Alberto Montes won by Submission (R2)
Montes 62%38% Turcios
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 62% (-0.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +201(favors Montes)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Turcios)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Turcios)
FlyweightHIT
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tumendemberel 66%34% Durden
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+1.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +140(favors Tumendemberel)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Durden)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Durden)
Early Prelims
FlyweightHIT
Sumudaerji won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sumudaerji 65%35% Aguilar
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -41(favors Aguilar)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Sumudaerji)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Aguilar)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Diyar Nurgozhay won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nurgozhay 31%69% Tobias
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -322(favors Tobias)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Nurgozhay)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.9(favors Nurgozhay)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Rodolfo Bellato won by KO/TKO (R1)
Bellato 32%68% Fernandez
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-1.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +67(favors Bellato)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Bellato)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Bellato)